The effects of wartime institutions on households’ ability to cope with shocks: Evidence for Colombia
The effects of wartime institutions on households’ ability to cope with shocks: Evidence for Colombia
复制标题
战时制度对家庭应对冲击能力的影响：哥伦比亚的证据
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Forslid
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Richard E. Baldwin;R. Forslid
本文研究了战时制度对家庭应对负收入冲击能力的影响，以反叛民主为衡量标准。反叛民主是由非国家武装行动者在其控制的社区中建立的社会秩序。通过提供公共产品和可预测的运作框架，反叛可能会激励家庭扩大生产和积累财富，使他们比生活在暴力和混乱的战区的家庭处于更高的收入轨道。如果这些较好的经济条件在非国家武装行为者离开该领土后继续存在，那么在反叛程度较强的社区的家庭将能够更好地应对负面的收入冲击。实证策略确定家庭对随机天气冲击的反应，并通过反叛水平估计其异质影响。使用哥伦比亚四个冲突地区的家庭面板，估计控制了时不变的不可观测值。研究发现，与生活在有非国家武装行为者存在但干预有限或没有干预的地区的家庭相比，在反叛情绪强烈的地区，家庭能够更好地应对负面天气冲击。前者家庭受到天气冲击的经济影响较小，也较少诉诸于生存移民。反叛的效果主要是由非国家武装行为体提供的公共产品驱动的。虽然这篇论文并没有声称反叛民主的因果影响，但它的系数估计对于控制可能首先解释反叛民主的混杂因素是稳健的。
This paper studies the legacies of wartime institutions, measured as rebelocracy, on the ability of households to cope with negative income shocks. Rebelocracy is the social order established by non-state armed actors in the communities they control.By providing public goods and a predictable framework within which to operate, rebelocracy may generate incentives for households to expand production and accumulate wealth, placing them in a higher income trajectory than households living in war zones amid violence and chaos. If these better economic conditions persist after non-state armed actors leave the territory, households in communities that had stronger rebelocracy levels will be better able to cope with negative income shocks.The empirical strategy identifies householdsA¢â‚¬â„¢ responses to random weather shocks and estimates their heterogeneous impact by the level of rebelocracy. Using a household panel in four conflict regions in Colombia, the estimation controls for time-invariant unobservables.The study finds that in regions with strong rebelocracy, households are better able to cope with negative weather shocks than those living in regions with non-state armed actor presence but with limited or no intervention. The former households face a lower economic impact of weather shocks and resort less to survival migration.The effect of rebelocracy is driven mostly by the provision of public goods by non-state armed actors. While this paper is not claiming causal impacts of rebelocracy, its coefficient estimates are robust to controlling for confounders that may explain rebelocracy in the first place.