Revealing hidden evolutionary capacity to cope with global change
Revealing hidden evolutionary capacity to cope with global change
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12929
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发表时间：
2015-09-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Marshall, Dustin J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chirgwin, Evatt;Monro, Keyne;Marshall, Dustin J.
全球变化将在多大程度上影响物种的长期持久性，取决于它们适应未来条件的进化潜力。虽然在预测的全球变化情景下估计种群中适应性遗传变异水平的研究数量一直在增加，但很少有研究同时考虑多个环境，更少的研究考虑了多变量背景下的进化潜力。由于条件不会是恒定的，适应气候变化从根本上来说是一个多变量的过程，因此查看多变量空间中的遗传方差和协方差总是比依赖于性状之间的双变量遗传相关性更能提供信息。有必要用多变量的方法来理解应对全球变化的进化能力，以避免在选择将起作用的维度上错误地估计适应性遗传变异。我们评估了海洋多毛类丛生Galeolaria caespatosa幼虫阶段适应较温暖水温的进化能力。灰背天牛是澳大利亚重要的栖息地形成物种，其生活史的早期阶段更容易受到胁迫的影响。我们使用了一个强大的数量遗传学设计，评估了三种温度对204个独特家族的30,000多个胚胎随后存活的影响。在我们的研究中，我们在两个较冷的温度中发现了适应性遗传变异，但在最热的温度中没有发现适应性遗传变异。根据这些结果，我们会得出结论，这种物种进化到最温暖温度的能力非常小。然而，当我们探索多变量空间的遗传变异时，我们发现有证据表明，即使在最热的温度下，幼虫的存活也有可能通过对热环境中选择的相关反应而进化。未来的研究应该采用多变量的方法来估计应对全球变化的进化能力，以免错误地估计一个物种的真正适应潜力。
The extent to which global change will impact the long-term persistence of species depends on their evolutionary potential to adapt to future conditions. While the number of studies that estimate the standing levels of adaptive genetic variation in populations under predicted global change scenarios is growing all the time, few studies have considered multiple environments simultaneously and even fewer have considered evolutionary potential in multivariate context. Because conditions will not be constant, adaptation to climate change is fundamentally a multivariate process so viewing genetic variances and covariances over multivariate space will always be more informative than relying on bivariate genetic correlations between traits. A multivariate approach to understanding the evolutionary capacity to cope with global change is necessary to avoid misestimating adaptive genetic variation in the dimensions in which selection will act. We assessed the evolutionary capacity of the larval stage of the marine polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa to adapt to warmer water temperatures. Galeolaria is an important habitat-forming species in Australia, and its earlier life-history stages tend to be more susceptible to stress. We used a powerful quantitative genetics design that assessed the impacts of three temperatures on subsequent survival across over 30 000 embryos across 204 unique families. We found adaptive genetic variation in the two cooler temperatures in our study, but none in the warmest temperature. Based on these results, we would have concluded that this species has very little capacity to evolve to the warmest temperature. However, when we explored genetic variation in multivariate space, we found evidence that larval survival has the potential to evolve even in the warmest temperatures via correlated responses to selection across thermal environments. Future studies should take a multivariate approach to estimating evolutionary capacity to cope with global change lest they misestimate a species' true adaptive potential.