BAYESIAN DERIVED PREDICTIONS FOR TWICE DAILY THEOPHYLLINE UNDER OUTPATIENT CONDITIONS AND AN ASSESSMENT OF OPTIMAL SAMPLING TIMES
BAYESIAN DERIVED PREDICTIONS FOR TWICE DAILY THEOPHYLLINE UNDER OUTPATIENT CONDITIONS AND AN ASSESSMENT OF OPTIMAL SAMPLING TIMES
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2125.1989.tb05353.x
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发表时间：
1989-02-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
PEAKE, MD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
CHRYSTYN, H;ELLIS, JW;PEAKE, MD
1采用Bayesian分析的统计技术，评价了茶碱口服缓释制剂每日两次给药的单次血清茶碱浓度药代动力学解释的计算机化方法的准确性。2测定15例受试者口服400 mg复方甘草酸单酯片（Napp Laboratories）后24 h稳态血药浓度-时间曲线。这些曲线显示茶碱吸收的日变化，其在白天更快。3使用先前门诊预约期间采集的单一血清茶碱浓度，通过贝叶斯分析生成曲线的修订预测。比较预测和测量的曲线，认为贝叶斯方法的准确度足以满足临床目的。[4]与使用人口数据的茶碱算法相比，修订后的估计值产生的预测在统计学上偏差更小，更精确。5日间和夜间峰值药物浓度的修正估计值的平均预测误差分别为-0.55 mg l-1和-0.21 mg l-1，而夜间和早晨谷值的平均预测误差分别为1.17 mg l-1和0.41 mg l-1。6对曲线期间采集的样本的预测和相对性能的分析显示，早晨给药前采集的样本产生了最准确的预测。7早晨给药前4小时或给药后2小时采集的样本的相对预测性能无统计学差异。因此，建议所有用于贝叶斯分析的血清茶碱浓度均应在此期间抽取。
1 The accuracy of a computerised method of pharmacokinetic interpretation of a single serum theophylline concentration, employing the statistical technique of Bayesian analysis, has been evaluated for an oral slow release from of theophylline using twice daily dosing. 2 Twenty-four hour steady state serum theophylline concentration-time profiles of one Uniphyllin Continus 400 mg tablet (Napp Laboratories) every 12 h were measured in 15 patients. These profiles demonstrated a diurnal variation of theophylline absorption which was faster during the day. 3 Revised predictions of the profiles were generated by Bayesian analysis using a single serum theophylline concentration taken during a previous outpatients appointment. Comparing the predicted and measured profiles, the accuracy of the Bayesian method is considered more than adequate for clinical purposes. 4 The predictions produced by the revised estimates were statistically less biases and more precise than those derived by a theophylline algorithm using population data. 5 The mean prediction errors of the revised estimates of the days and night-peak drug concentration were -0.55 mg l-1 and -0.21 l-1 whilst those of the evening and morning troughs were 1.17 mg l-1 and 0.41 mg l-1, respectively. 6 Analysis of the predictive an relative performance of the samples drawn during the profile revealed that the sample taken prior to a morning dose produced the most accurate predictions. 7 There was no statistical difference in the relative predictive performance of samples drawn up to 4 h before or 2 h after the morning dose. It is, therefore, recommended that all serum theophylline concentrations to be used in Bayesian analysis, should be drawn within this period.