Impacts of urbanization, antecedent rainfall event, and cyclone tracks on extreme floods at Houston reservoirs during Hurricane Harvey
Impacts of urbanization, antecedent rainfall event, and cyclone tracks on extreme floods at Houston reservoirs during Hurricane Harvey
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abc4ff
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发表时间：
2019-12
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Xudong Li;Gang Zhao;J. Nielsen‐Gammon;Joel C. Salazar;M. Wigmosta;Ningning Sun;D. Judi;Huilin Gao-Hu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xudong Li;Gang Zhao;J. Nielsen‐Gammon;Joel C. Salazar;M. Wigmosta;Ningning Sun;D. Judi;Huilin Gao-Hu
本研究的目的是评估 2017 年 8 月至 9 月哈维飓风造成的洪水期间，城市化、前期降雨事件 (ARE) 和不同的气旋路径对水流的影响，从而评估随后的水库状况。通过水文建模方法，我们研究了这些因素如何影响休斯顿地区两个最重要的滞留水库（阿迪克斯和巴克）的流入量、峰池高程和流出量。水库。采用极端风暴事件的高分辨率降雨再分析数据集以及来自各种风暴路径的一系列合成降雨值来代表飓风哈维期间的真实降雨量和最大可能降雨量。结果表明：城市化仅导致峰值流入量略有增加，不一定导致峰值池高程增加，并且 ARE 对峰值流入量和池高程略有贡献。相比之下，如果气旋遵循与早期预测一致的最不利路径（其他条件相同），则流入两个水库的总流量将显着增加（分别为 37% 和 49%），从而使峰池高程分别增加 1.06 和 1.37 m。这些结果表明，由于气旋路径的不确定性，飓风期间流域规模的洪水管理存在很大的不确定性。即使可以完美预测风暴相对降水率，这一点仍然成立。
The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of urbanization, an antecedent rainfall event (ARE), and varying cyclone tracks on the streamflow—and thus the subsequent reservoir status—during the floods caused by Hurricane Harvey in August–September 2017. Through a hydrological modeling approach, we examined how these factors influenced the inflows, peak pool elevations, and outflows of the two most important detention reservoirs in the Houston region, the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs. A high-resolution rainfall reanalysis dataset for extreme storm events, along with a suite of synthetic rainfall values from a variety of storm tracks, were adopted to represent both the truth and the maximum possible rainfall during the Hurricane Harvey period. The results showed the following: Urbanization only led to slight increases in peak inflows, not necessarily to an increase in peak pool elevations, and the ARE contributed to the peak inflow and pool elevation slightly. In contrast, if the cyclone had followed the most adverse track consistent with earlier forecasts (all else being equal), the total volumetric flow into the two reservoirs would have been significantly larger (37% and 49% respectively), thus increasing the peak pool elevations by 1.06 and 1.37 m respectively. These results suggest that large uncertainties exist for flood management at a watershed scale during hurricanes, because of the uncertainties in the cyclone track. This would remain true even if storm-relative precipitation rates could be predicted perfectly.