Delayed density-dependent season length alone can lead to rodent population cycles
Delayed density-dependent season length alone can lead to rodent population cycles
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DOI：
10.1086/503119
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发表时间：
2006-05-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Begon, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith, MJ;White, A;Begon, M
对周期性田鼠种群（田鼠和旅鼠）的研究表明，前一年的种群密度与越冬繁殖雌性的繁殖开始时间之间存在关系。没有研究探讨这种关系在人口周期产生中的重要性。在这里，我们从数学上研究延迟densitydependent变化在其开始日期所造成的生殖季节长度的变化的影响。我们证明，当生殖季节长度是过去的人口密度的函数，它是可能的，得到现实的人口周期，而不调用任何出生率或生存的变化。参数化时，在基尔德森林（北方英格兰）的田鼠（田鼠agrestis），我们最现实的模型预测人口周期类似的周期性基尔德人口。我们的研究强调了密度依赖性生殖时间在microtine种群周期中的潜在重要性，并呼吁对这一现象的机制进行调查。
Studies of cyclic microtine populations (voles and lemmings) have suggested a relationship between the previous year's population density and the subsequent timing of the onset of reproduction by overwintered breeding females. No studies have explored the importance of this relationship in the generation of population cycles. Here we mathematically examine the implications of variation in reproductive season length caused by delayed densitydependent changes in its start date. We demonstrate that when reproductive season length is a function of past population densities, it is possible to get realistic population cycles without invoking any changes in birth rates or survival. When parameterized for field voles (Microtus agrestis) in Kielder Forest (northern England), our most realistic model predicts population cycles of similar periodicity to the Kielder populations. Our study highlights the potential importance of density-dependent reproductive timing in microtine population cycles and calls for investigations into the mechanism(s) underlying this phenomenon.