The Utility of Sounding and Mesonet Data to Nowcast Thunderstorm Initiation
The Utility of Sounding and Mesonet Data to Nowcast Thunderstorm Initiation
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探测和中观网数据在临近雷暴启动中的效用
DOI：
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发表时间：
1993
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. Cṙook
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作者：
Cynthia K. Mueller;James W. Wilson;N. Cṙook
摘要以前的研究表明，雷暴经常形成沿着边界层辐合线（边界）检测类似于WSR-88 D灵敏的多普勒雷达。在本文中，高分辨率的中尺度观测（10-15公里的间距和1分钟的平均值）和探空数据（8个站在25 000平方公里和1-6小时的频率）收集在东北部科罗拉多检查，以确定其实用程序，准确预报风暴何时何地开始沿着边界。从中网和探空数据得出的稳定性指数有助于确定风暴不太可能发生的稳定区域。然而，在指数表明存在一定程度潜在不稳定的地区，风暴往往不会形成，即使形成，其强度也与不稳定的程度无关。二维数值模式研究表明，在接近中性的环境中（典型的是在丹佛，科罗拉多夏天的下午），表面温度和/或露点波动2-4°C可以是...
Abstract Previous studies have shown that thunderstorms often form along boundary-layer convergence lines (boundaries) detected by sensitive Doppler radars similar to the WSR-88D. In this paper, high-resolution mesonet observations (10–15-km spacing and 1-min averages) and sounding data (eight stations within 25 000 km2 and 1–6-h frequency) collected in northeast Colorado are examined to determine their utility for forecasting precisely when and where storms initiate along boundaries. Stability indices derived from mesonet and sounding data were useful in identifying stable regions where storm initiation was unlikely. However, in regions where indices indicated a degree of latent instability, storms often did not form and if they did their intensities were not correlated to the magnitude of the instability. Two-dimensional numerical model studies show that in a near-neutral environment (as typical during a Denver, Colorado summer afternoon), surface temperature and/or dewpoint fluctuations of 2–4°C can be...