Modeling Temperature Effects on Population Density of the Dengue Mosquito Aedes aegypti
Modeling Temperature Effects on Population Density of the Dengue Mosquito Aedes aegypti
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DOI：
10.3390/insects10110393
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发表时间：
2019-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Johnson, Leah R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
El Moustaid, Fadoua;Johnson, Leah R.
蚊子密度在登革热和寨卡病毒等蚊媒疾病的传播中起着重要作用。虽然估计蚊子密度仍然非常具有挑战性，但建模人员已经尝试了不同的方法来用数学模型表示蚊子密度。本文的目的是调查蚊子密度的各种量化方法，并提出一个包括蚊子生活期细节的动态系统模型。我们首先讨论决定蚊子密度的蚊子特征，重点是那些与温度有关的特征。我们根据这些特征评估了不同形式的蚊子密度模型，并探索了它们随着温度变化的动态。最后，我们将模型的预测与巴西维托利亚埃及伊蚊随时间的观察结果进行了比较。我们的结果表明，这四个模型在温度强迫下表现出定性和定量不同的行为，但似乎都与观测到的丰度数据相一致。
Mosquito density plays an important role in the spread of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and Zika. While it remains very challenging to estimate the density of mosquitoes, modelers have tried different methods to represent it in mathematical models. The goal of this paper is to investigate the various ways mosquito density has been quantified, as well as to propose a dynamical system model that includes the details of mosquito life stages leading to the adult population. We first discuss the mosquito traits involved in determining mosquito density, focusing on those that are temperature dependent. We evaluate different forms of models for mosquito densities based on these traits and explore their dynamics as temperature varies. Finally, we compare the predictions of the models to observations of Aedes aegypti abundances over time in Vitoria, Brazil. Our results indicate that the four models exhibit qualitatively and quantitatively different behaviors when forced by temperature, but that all seem reasonably consistent with observed abundance data.