Irrational decisions:: attending to numbers rather than ratios
Irrational decisions:: attending to numbers rather than ratios
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DOI：
10.1016/s0191-8869(02)00368-9
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发表时间：
2003-11-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Fernández-Berrocal, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alonso, D;Fernández-Berrocal, P
在判断低概率事件的概率时，许多人认为当用小数字（例如 1:10）的比率表示比大数字（例如 10:100）的比率时，它的可能性较小。这称为比率偏差 (RB) 现象。除了证实这一现象之外，在这个实验中，尽管选项之间的概率差异很大（比之前的研究更大），但参与者还是做出了非理性的决定，选择了 10% 的概率，而不是 20% 和 30%。这些结果支持根据认知体验自我理论（CEST）原理进行的解释。还检查了呈现 RB 现象的倾向与合理程度（通过认知需求量表测量）之间的关系。选择非最佳反应的参与者获得的理性得分低于选择最佳反应的参与者的得分。 (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
When judging the probability of a low probability event, many people judge it as less likely when it is expressed as a ratio of small numbers (e.g. 1:10) than of large numbers (e.g. 10:100). This is known as the ratio-bias (RB) phenomenon. Besides confirming the phenomenon, in this experiment participants made irrational decisions selecting probabilities of 10% in preference to 20 and 30%, in spite of the great discrepancy of probabilities between options (greater than in previous studies). These results support an interpretation in terms of the principles of cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST). Relation between tendency to present the RB phenomenon and degree of rationality (as measured by the Need for Cognition Scale) was also examined. Scores in rationality obtained by participants who chose the nonoptimal response were lower than scores of participants who chose the optimal response. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.