Improving Fiscal Policy in the EU: The Case for Independent Forecasts
Improving Fiscal Policy in the EU: The Case for Independent Forecasts
复制标题
改善欧盟的财政政策：独立预测的案例
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00162.x
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Martin Larch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Jonung;Martin Larch
ARE OFFICIAL OUTPUT FORECASTS BIASED?
We point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and provide evidence that in some euro-area countries biased forecasts have played a thus far neglected role in generating excessive deficits. We suggest that the forecast bias may be politically motivated, and that forecasts produced by an independent authority would be better than in-house Ministry of Finance forecasts for the purpose of monitoring budget formation and budget outcomes.
— Lars Jonung and Martin Larch
