Verbal and numerical expressions of probability: "It's a fifty-fifty chance"
Verbal and numerical expressions of probability: "It's a fifty-fifty chance"
复制标题
DOI：
10.1006/obhd.1999.2868
复制
发表时间：
2000-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Halpern-Felsher, BL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
de Bruin, WB;Fischhoff, B;Halpern-Felsher, BL
在估计风险时，人们可能会使用“50”来表达“50 - 50的机会”，而不是50%的相关数字。结果是响应分布中超过50 s。本研究使用青少年和成人的大样本，研究了决定这种“50个光点”大小的因素。我们发现，以分布格式（询问风险在人群中的百分比）而不是以单一格式（询问个体的风险）来表达概率问题会减少“50”的使用。计算能力较弱的受访者、儿童和受教育程度较低的成年人更有可能说“50岁”。最后，那些唤起较低控制感的事件导致更多的50岁。结果进行了讨论，他们揭示了人们如何表达认知的不确定性。(C)北京大学出版社.
When estimating risks, people may use "50" as an expression of the verbal phrase "fifty-fifty chance," without intending the associated number of 50%. The result is an excess of 50s in the response distribution. The present study examined factors determining the magnitude of such a "50 blip," using a large sample of adolescents and adults. We found that phrasing probability questions in a distributional format (asking about risks as a percentage in a population) rather than in a singular format (asking about risks to an individual) reduced the use of "50." Less numerate respondents, children, and less educated adults were more likely to say "50," Finally, events that evoked feelings of less perceived control led to more 50s. The results are discussed in terms of what they reveal about how people express epistemic uncertainty. (C) 2000 Academic Press.