Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics
Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics
复制标题
野生动物种群动态跨学科分析元模型
作者：
R. Lacy;P. Miller;P. Nyhus;J. P. Pollak;B. Raboy;S. Zeigler
野生动物种群模型在分析生物-物理-人类耦合系统的复杂性时，因其狭隘的学科视角而受到批评。我们描述了一个“元模型”的方法，物种风险评估时，不同的威胁在不同的时空尺度上，以非线性的方式相互作用，并解决了不同的学科。元模型将描述复杂系统组件的离散的单个模型连接起来，控制模型之间的信息流和模拟事件的顺序。每个模型都模拟特定于其学科领域的过程，同时通过访问系统、群体和个人的公共描述符来了解其他元模型组件的变化。模型之间的相互作用被揭示为系统的紧急属性。我们介绍了一个新的元模型平台，既进一步解释元模型方法的关键要素，并作为一个例子，我们希望将促进其他平台的发展，在人口生物学，物种风险评估和保护规划实施元模型。我们提出了两个例子--一个探索集合种群中扩散和传染病传播的相互作用，另一个研究捕食者-猎物动态--以说明当种群动态与其他外在因素联系在一起时，元模型如何揭示复杂的过程和意想不到的模式。元模型提供了一个灵活的，可扩展的方法，扩大人口生存能力分析超越孤立的人口统计模型到更完整的代表性的外部和内在的威胁，必须理解和管理物种保护。
Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation.