Agent-Based Simulation of State Collapse and Reconstruction: Analyzing the Past and Future of Somalia
Agent-Based Simulation of State Collapse and Reconstruction: Analyzing the Past and Future of Somalia
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2775541
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发表时间：
2016-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Takuto Sakamoto;M. Endo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Takuto Sakamoto;M. Endo
国内冲突常常伴随着国家一体化和解体的重大政治动态。尽管冲突文献在方法论上取得了重大进展，但很少有人尝试将这些动态纳入冲突的正式分析中。在本文中，我们提出了一种基于主体的民事冲突模型，该模型特别关注国家领土的整合和分裂。使用各种经验数据，我们将该模型应用于索马里的案例。该模型捕捉到了索马里领土统治的几个决定性特征，最显着的是该国强烈的分裂倾向。广泛的模拟还揭示了国家资源约束的结构性本质，这种约束持续阻碍着全国范围内稳定统治的建立。这些结果及其含义为有关索马里冲突的文献提供了一个新的视角，这些文献往往关注特定的社会分裂及其政治剥削。
Civil conflicts are frequently accompanied by significant political dynamics of state integration and disintegration. Despite substantial methodological advancement in the conflict literature, there have been few attempts at incorporating these dynamics into a formal analysis of conflict. In this article, we present an agent-based model of civil conflict that has a distinctive focus on state territorial integration and disintegration. Using various empirical data, we apply this model to the case of Somalia. The model is shown to capture several defining characteristics of the territorial rule in Somalia, most notably the strong tendency of the country to fragment. Extensive simulations also reveal the structural nature of the country’s resource constraints, which persistently hinder the nationwide establishment of stable rule. These results and their implications offer a fresh perspective for the literature on the conflicts in Somalia, which has often focused on a specific social cleavage and its political exploitation.