Modelling the transition from cost-based to bid-based pricing in a deregulated electricity-market
Modelling the transition from cost-based to bid-based pricing in a deregulated electricity-market
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2007.05.001
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发表时间：
2007-12
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
D. Druce
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Druce
阿尔伯塔是加拿大西部的一个省，电力市场管制放松。大多数小时的市场清算价格反映了燃煤或燃气热发电的成本。每当发电量长期短缺，甚至是由于停电而暂时短缺时，价格可能会比燃料成本高得多。不列颠哥伦比亚省与阿尔伯塔省西部接壤，该省的电力公司BC Hydro与阿尔伯塔省的电力公司有着悠久的贸易历史。BC Hydro主要拥有水力资源和大型水库。在1996年阿尔伯塔放松管制之前，BC Hydro能够与阿尔伯塔公用事业公司签订互利的负荷保理合同。现在，只要输电可用，BC Hydro就可以购买低价的非高峰燃煤能源，并在高价时期出售，而不必分享收益。BC Hydro使用计量经济学和蒙特卡洛建模相结合的方法来模拟阿尔伯塔的小时价格-持续时间曲线，该曲线同时捕获基于成本和基于投标的特征。这种方法提供了一个很好的适合与随机动态规划模型，BC水电开发的中期水电调度。
Alberta is a province in western Canada with a deregulated electricity-market. Market clearing prices for most hours reflect the cost of either coal-fired or gas-fired thermal generation. Whenever there is a chronic shortage of generation or even a temporary one due to an outage, prices can be bid much higher than fuel costs would suggest. The province of British Columbia borders Alberta to the west and its electric utility, BC Hydro, has a history of trade with the utilities in Alberta. BC Hydro has predominantly hydroelectric resources and large storage reservoirs. Prior to Alberta’s deregulation in 1996, BC Hydro was able to enter into mutually beneficial load-factoring contracts with the Alberta utilities. Now, as long as the transmission is available, BC Hydro can buy low priced off-peak coal-fired energy and sell into the high priced periods without having to share the benefits. BC Hydro uses a combination of econometric and Monte Carlo modelling to simulate hourly price-duration curves for Alberta that capture both cost-based and bid-based characteristics. This approach provides a good fit with the stochastic dynamic programming model that BC Hydro has developed for its mid-term hydro scheduling.