Influence of storm surge on tidal range energy
Influence of storm surge on tidal range energy
复制标题
风暴潮对潮差能量的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.068
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
S. Neill
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Lewis;Athanasios Angeloudis;P. Robins;Paul Evans;S. Neill
潮汐的规律性和可预测性使潮汐泻湖或拦河坝发电成为一种有吸引力的可再生能源形式，然而风暴潮会影响总水位。在这里，我们提出了风暴潮对潮汐范围功率的潜在影响的第一个评估。英国9个潮汐计的水位数据（2000-2012年）被用于预测电力，其中潮汐范围的能量适合开发（例如布里斯托尔海峡）。由于年际变率，风暴潮对年资源估计的影响为- 5%至+3%，低于其他不确定性来源（如泻湖设计）；因此，仅从天文潮汐中估计每年的资源就足够了。然而，瞬时功率输出经常受到显著影响（归一化均方根误差：3%-8%，散点指数：15%-41%），因此，对于包括大量潮汐发电在内的任何未来发电情景，可能都需要风暴潮预测系统。风暴潮对潮差功率的影响随发电策略（仅涨潮、仅退潮或双涨潮）的不同而不同，但存在一定的时空变异性。只应对洪水的策略受到风暴潮的影响最大，很可能是因为潮汐与风暴潮的相互作用增加了涨潮时水位升高的可能性。
The regular and predictable nature of the tide makes the generation of electricity with a tidal lagoon or barrage an attractive form of renewable energy, yet storm surges affect the total water-level. Here, we present the first assessment of the potential impact of storm surges on tidal-range power. Water-level data (2000–2012) at nine UK tide gauges, where tidal-range energy is suitable for development (e.g. Bristol Channel), was used to predict power. Storm surge affected annual resource estimates −5% to +3%, due to inter-annual variability, which is lower than other sources of uncertainty (e.g. lagoon design); therefore, annual resource estimation from astronomical tides alone appears sufficient. However, instantaneous power output was often significantly affected (Normalised Root Mean Squared Error: 3%–8%, Scatter Index: 15%–41%) and so a storm surge prediction system may be required for any future electricity generation scenario that includes large amounts of tidal-range generation. The storm surge influence to tidal-range power varied with the electricity generation strategy considered (flooding tide only, ebb-only or dual; both flood and ebb), but with some spatial and temporal variability. The flood-only strategy was most affected by storm surge, mostly likely because tide-surge interaction increases the chance of higher water-levels on the flooding tide.