Optimization Based Modeling for the Food Supply Chain's Resilience to Outbreaks
Optimization Based Modeling for the Food Supply Chain's Resilience to Outbreaks
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DOI：
10.3389/fsufs.2022.887819
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发表时间：
2022-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Moynihan;Charalampos Avraam;Sauleh Siddiqui;R. Neff
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文献类型：
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作者：
E. Moynihan;Charalampos Avraam;Sauleh Siddiqui;R. Neff
尽管全球每年估计有6亿食源性疾病，但很少有研究关注食品供应链网络对疫情爆发的弹性。跨越国家、州和省的疫情是致命的，因为它们可能影响的人数很多，而且很难控制。需要对食品供应链网络进行研究，这些网络在食源性疾病方面或一般情况下没有得到很好的描述。本文介绍了美国食品，能源和国家运输（US-FEAST）模型，并通过分析一个假设的需求冲击造成的多个州的食品污染证明了其适用性。US-FEAST是一个基于优化的模型，覆盖所有50个州，每年的时间步长到2030年。它是一个框架，整合了来自多个单独数据源的食物系统数据。为了校准，我们开发了一个双层优化程序，以生成合成的，状态级的数据，并提供估计，否则不可用的数据在食品和运输系统的交叉点。US-FEAST的结果阐明了潜在的异质性国家层面的变化，在响应，粮食流动的区域变化，在供应链中的脆弱性，以及对粮食系统弹性的影响。虽然生成的数据和情景不是经验证据，但它们通过预测结果和干预效果提供了帮助规划的见解。我们的研究结果估计，牛肉产量下降23%，价格下降4%，为量化食品系统对食源性疾病的恢复能力提供了数据需求的路线图。US-FEAST及其框架可能具有研究国家和国际食品供应链网络中食品安全的全球效用。
Scant research focuses on the resiliency of food supply chain networks to outbreaks, despite the estimated 600 million global foodborne illnesses annually. Outbreaks that cross country, state and provincial lines are virulent due to the number of people they can affect and difficulty controlling them. Research is needed on food supply chain networks, which are not well-characterized in relation to foodborne illnesses or generally. This paper introduces the United States Food, Energy, and State Transportation (US-FEAST) model and demonstrates its applicability via analysis of a hypothetical demand shock resulting from multistate food contamination. US-FEAST is an optimization-based model across all fifty states with yearly timesteps to 2030. It is a framework integrating food system data from multiple individual data sources. To calibrate, we develop a bilevel optimization routine to generate synthetic, state-level data and provide estimates of otherwise unavailable data at the intersections of the food and transportation systems. The results of US-FEAST elucidate potential heterogenous state-level variations in response, regional changes in food flows, vulnerabilities in the supply chain, and implications for food system resilience. While the generated data and scenarios are not empirical evidence, they provide insights to aid in planning by projecting outcomes and intervention effects. Our results estimate a 23% beef production decrease and 4% price decrease provide a road map toward data needs for quantifying food system resilience to foodborne illness. US-FEAST and its framework may have global utility for studying food safety in national and international food supply chain networks.