Southern Ocean warming due to human influence
Southern Ocean warming due to human influence
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DOI：
10.1029/2006gl027247
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发表时间：
2006-10-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Fyfe, John C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fyfe, John C.
我表明，最新的一系列气候模型再现了自20世纪50年代以来观察到的南大洋中层变暖，如果它们包括地球大气中人为温室气体，硫酸盐气溶胶和火山气溶胶的随时间变化的变化。观测结果与最先进的气候模型之间的惊人一致表明，人类对南大洋温度的影响很大。我还表明，不包括火山气溶胶的气候模型产生的南大洋中层变暖几乎是包括火山气溶胶的气候模型产生的两倍。这意味着人类活动引起的南大洋变暖的全部影响可能尚未实现。
I show that the latest series of climate models reproduce the observed mid-depth Southern Ocean warming since the 1950s if they include time-varying changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols and volcanic aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere. The remarkable agreement between observations and state-of-the art climate models suggests significant human influence on Southern Ocean temperatures. I also show that climate models that do not include volcanic aerosols produce mid-depth Southern Ocean warming that is nearly double that produced by climate models that do include volcanic aerosols. This implies that the full effect of human-induced warming of the Southern Ocean may yet to be realized.