S4-01-03: LIFE COURSE AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE AND COGNITIVE DECLINE IN SCOTLAND: MODELLED HISTORICAL AIR POLLUTION DATA AND THE LOTHIAN BIRTH COHORT 1936
S4-01-03: LIFE COURSE AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE AND COGNITIVE DECLINE IN SCOTLAND: MODELLED HISTORICAL AIR POLLUTION DATA AND THE LOTHIAN BIRTH COHORT 1936
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S4-01-03：苏格兰的生命历程空气污染暴露和认知能力下降：模拟历史空气污染数据和 1936 年洛锡安出生队列
DOI：
10.1016/j.jalz.2018.06.2861
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Russ T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Russ T
在观察性研究和基础研究中，暴露于空气污染一直与痴呆症有关。痴呆症和空气污染都是真正的全球性问题，对高收入和低收入到中等收入国家都有影响。然而，在生命过程流行病学的背景下，尚不清楚风险是否通过长期接触而积累，或者是否存在敏感/关键时期。澄清这一点的一个主要障碍是缺乏历史空气污染数据。方法使用EMEP 4UK化学传输模型[1]，我们模拟了历史颗粒物（PM 2.5）1935年，1950年，1970年，1980年，并将这些数据与2000年以来的当代建模数据相结合，以估计洛锡安出生队列中467名参与者的生命过程暴露1936年[2]，他曾为一个有着悠久历史的人工作过。使用两个结果（从[1] 11岁到70岁和[2] 70岁到76岁的认知变化）和痴呆发生率构建线性回归模型，调整LBC 1936中收集的丰富的生活方式，医疗和社会经济数据。因此，我们能够探索当暴露于空气污染是最重要的大脑health.ResultsPM2.5在苏格兰的浓度估计已达到峰值约110微克/立方米，在1935年，大约10倍的最大浓度在当代的结果。初步模型表明，生命早期空气污染对认知老化尤为重要：1935年和1950年的PM2.5浓度与11-70岁的认知变化有关（P< 0.01），但以后几年则无显著性差异; 1980年的PM 2.5浓度与70-76岁的认知变化相关（P= 0.013），但其他年份的水平则无关。最终结果将在AAIC 2018上公布。结论
BackgroundExposure to air pollution has been consistently linked with dementia in observational studies and basic research. Both dementia and air pollution are truly global problems affecting high-and low-to-middle-income countries alike. However, in the context of life course epidemiology, it is unclear whether risk is accumulated through long-term exposure or whether there are sensitive/critical periods. One major barrier to clarifying this is the dearth of historical air pollution data.MethodsUsing the EMEP4UK chemical transport model [1] we modelled historical particulate matter (PM 2.5) for the years 1935, 1950, 1970, 1980, and 1990 and combined these with contemporary modelled data from 2000 onwards to estimate life course exposure in 467 participants in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 [2] who have provided lifetime residential history [3]. Linear regression models using two outcomes (cognitive change from [1] age 11 to age 70 years and [2] age 70 to 76 years) and dementia occurrence were constructed adjusting for the rich lifestyle, medical, and socioeconomic data collected in the LBC1936. Thus, we were able to explore when exposure to air pollution was most important in relation to brain health.ResultsConcentrations of PM 2.5 in Scotland are estimated to have peaked at approximately 110ug/m 3 in 1935, roughly ten times the maximum concentration seen in contemporary results. Preliminary models suggest that early life air pollution is particularly important in cognitive ageing: PM 2.5 concentrations in 1935 and 1950 were associated with cognitive change from 11-70 years (P< 0.01) but levels in later years were not; PM 2.5 concentrations in 1980 were associated with cognitive change from 70-76 years (P= 0.013) but levels in other years were not. Final results will be available for presentation at AAIC2018.Conclusions