Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
复制标题
澳大利亚 COVID-19 疫情的早期分析
DOI：
10.1101/2020.04.25.20080127
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
J. McCaw
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Price;F. Shearer;M. Meehan;E. McBryde;Rob Moss;N. Golding;E. Conway;P. Dawson;D. Cromer;J. Wood;S. Abbott;J. McVernon;J. McCaw
截至2020年4月18日，澳大利亚已确诊6,533例新冠肺炎病例。在这些人中，67人死于这种疾病。每天新增确诊病例的数量正在下降。这表明，澳大利亚公众和政府当局针对新冠肺炎采取的集体行动足够早、足够勤奋，足以避免一场公共卫生危机--目前是这样。分析促成个别国家新冠肺炎经验的因素，如公共卫生干预的强度和时机，将有助于全球下一阶段的应对规划。利用澳大利亚国家新冠肺炎数据库的数据，我们描述了截至2020年4月13日澳大利亚的疫情和公共卫生应对情况。我们估计，自3月中旬以来，澳大利亚各州的有效生殖数量可能低于1(控制的阈值)，并预测未来两周医院病房和重症监护病房的入住率将保持在低于容量阈值的水平。
As of 18 April 2020, there had been 6,533 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 67 had died from the disease. The daily count of new confirmed cases was declining. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors, such as the intensity and timing public health interventions, that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19 will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. Using data from the Australian national COVID-19 database, we describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April 2020. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below 1 (the threshold value for control) in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that hospital ward and intensive care unit occupancy will remain below capacity thresholds over the next two weeks.