Risk assessment of yellow fever urbanization in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Risk assessment of yellow fever urbanization in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trstmh.2003.12.019
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发表时间：
2004-12-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Struchiner, CJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Codeço, CT;Luz, PM;Struchiner, CJ
黄热病（YF）是一种节肢动物传播的病毒性疾病，发生在热带美洲和非洲地区。森林型YF是巴西北部和西部的地方病。另一方面，自1942年以来，该国没有关于城市YF的报告。然而，巴西城市病媒黄热病的广泛存在导致人们担心黄热病可能在城市中心再次出现。在这里，我们通过估计来自黄热病流行地区的感染个体的概率以及感染个体引发流行病的概率来评估巴西巴西里约热内卢市出现黄热病的风险。我们发现，在动物流行期间，城市YF发生的风险可能高达29%，但估计的精度较低。(C) 2004年皇家热带医学与卫生学会。Elsevier Ltd.出版。版权所有。
Yellow fever (YF), an arthropod-borne viral disease, occurs in regions of tropical America and Africa. Sylvatic YF is endemic in the north and west of Brazil. Urban YF, on the other hand, has not been reported in the country since 1942. However, the widespread presence of the YF urban vector in Brazil has lead to concern about the potential re-emergence of YF in urban centres. Here, we assess the risk of YF emergence in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, by estimating the probability of infected individuals arriving from YF-endemic areas, and the probability of infective individuals triggering an epidemic. We found that the risk of urban YF emergence may reach values as high as 29% during the epizootic periods but the precision of the estimate is tow. (C) 2004 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.