Mapping the economic benefits to livestock keepers from intervening against bovine trypanosomosis in Eastern Africa
Mapping the economic benefits to livestock keepers from intervening against bovine trypanosomosis in Eastern Africa
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.10.024
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发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Robinson, T. P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shaw, A. P. M.;Cecchi, G.;Robinson, T. P.
采采热传播的锥虫病等地方性动物疾病不断消耗非洲畜牧业者的财政资源及其牲畜的生产力。了解消除动物锥虫病的潜在惠益在地理上的分布情况，将为确定成本效益干预措施的优先次序和目标提供关键证据，也是宣传的有力工具。为此，对东非6个采采热肆虐的国家进行了研究：埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、索马里、南苏丹、苏丹和乌干达。首先，制作了一张牛生产系统地图，其中特别注意了耕牛和乳畜的存在。其次，为每个生产系统开发了两种情况的羊群模型：患有或不患有锥虫病。牛群模型是基于关于牛的生产力(繁殖力、死亡率、产量、销售量)的出版物和报告，从这些报告中估计了20年来牛种群的收入和增长。第三，使用逐步空间扩展模型来估计当超过最大载畜率时，牛种群如何迁移到新的区域。最后，绘制了两种方案之间的收入差异，从而提供了干预采采症和锥虫病所能获得的最大好处的衡量标准。为了便于映射这一信息，计算了每头牛的收益，并将其换算为每平方公里美元。结果表明，在东非处理锥虫病的潜在益处很高，而且在地理上有很大的变数。整个研究区域牲畜饲养者的总最大收益估计为近25亿美元，20年内折价10%--采采集肆虐地区平均每平方公里约3300美元--但区域差异很大，从每平方公里不到500美元到远高于10,000美元。埃塞俄比亚获得了最大的潜在利益，因为它的牲畜密度很高，而且动物牵引力很重要，肯尼亚和乌干达的部分地区也是如此。一般来说，最高的福利水平出现在采采病侵扰的边缘。讨论了模型假设和概括的含义。(C)2013年联合国粮食及农业组织。爱思唯尔出版，版权所有。
Endemic animal diseases such as tsetse-transmitted trypanosomosis are a constant drain on the financial resources of African livestock keepers and on the productivity of their livestock. Knowing where the potential benefits of removing animal trypanosomosis are distributed geographically would provide crucial evidence for prioritising and targeting cost-effective interventions as well as a powerful tool for advocacy. To this end, a study was conducted on six tsetse-infested countries in Eastern Africa: Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda. First, a map of cattle production systems was generated, with particular attention to the presence of draught and dairy animals. Second, herd models for each production system were developed for two scenarios: with or without trypanosomosis. The herd models were based on publications and reports on cattle productivity (fertility, mortality, yields, sales), from which the income from, and growth of cattle populations were estimated over a twenty-year period. Third, a step-wise spatial expansion model was used to estimate how cattle populations might migrate to new areas when maximum stocking rates are exceeded. Last, differences in income between the two scenarios were mapped, thus providing a measure of the maximum benefits that could be obtained from intervening against tsetse and trypanosomosis. For this information to be readily mappable, benefits were calculated per bovine and converted to US$ per square kilometre. Results indicate that the potential benefits from dealing with trypanosomosis in Eastern Africa are both very high and geographically highly variable. The estimated total maximum benefit to livestock keepers for the whole of the study area amounts to nearly US$ 2.5 billion, discounted at 10% over twenty years - an average of approximately US$ 3300 per square kilometre of tsetse-infested area - but with great regional variation from less than US$ 500 per square kilometre to well over US$ 10,000. The greatest potential benefits accrue to Ethiopia, because of its very high livestock densities and the importance of animal traction, but also to parts of Kenya and Uganda. In general, the highest benefit levels occur on the fringes of the tsetse infestations. The implications of the models' assumptions and generalisations are discussed. (C) 2013 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.