Imitation dynamics of vaccination behaviour on social networks
Imitation dynamics of vaccination behaviour on social networks
复制标题
社交网络上疫苗接种行为的模仿动态
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2010.1107
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发表时间：
2011-01-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Nowak, Martin A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fu, Feng;Rosenbloom, Daniel I.;Nowak, Martin A.
通过自愿接种疫苗实现对传染病的广泛免疫的问题往往被认为是一个公益困境，因为个人接种疫苗有助于群体免疫，从而保护那些放弃接种疫苗的人。搭便车的诱惑使均衡疫苗接种水平低于社会最优水平。在这里，我们提出了一个进化博弈论的方法来解决这个问题，探索个体模仿行为和群体结构在疫苗接种中的作用。为此，我们将流行病学过程整合到一个简单的基于主体的适应性学习模型中，其中个人使用轶事证据来估计疫苗接种的成本和收益。在我们的模拟中，我们关注的是流感样感染的真实参数值。矛盾的是，当代理人越来越善于模仿成功的策略时，接种疫苗的均衡水平就会低于理性的个人最优。在有结构的人群中，情况只是稍微乐观一些：在疫苗接种成本较低的范围内，疫苗接种得到广泛推广，但在成本超过一个临界阈值后，覆盖率急剧下降。这一结果与疫苗接种覆盖率在一段时间内提供群体免疫的历史情景相似，但随后迅速下降。我们的研究揭示了同伴的模仿如何影响个人在社会网络中的疫苗接种选择。
The problem of achieving widespread immunity to infectious diseases by voluntary vaccination is often presented as a public-goods dilemma, as an individual's vaccination contributes to herd immunity, protecting those who forgo vaccination. The temptation to free-ride brings the equilibrium vaccination level below the social optimum. Here, we present an evolutionary game-theoretic approach to this problem, exploring the roles of individual imitation behaviour and population structure in vaccination. To this end, we integrate an epidemiological process into a simple agent-based model of adaptive learning, where individuals use anecdotal evidence to estimate costs and benefits of vaccination. In our simulations, we focus on parameter values that are realistic for a flu-like infection. Paradoxically, as agents become more adept at imitating successful strategies, the equilibrium level of vaccination falls below the rational individual optimum. In structured populations, the picture is only somewhat more optimistic: vaccination is widespread over a range of low vaccination costs, but coverage plummets after cost exceeds a critical threshold. This result suggests parallels to historical scenarios in which vaccination coverage provided herd immunity for some time, but then rapidly dropped. Our work sheds light on how imitation of peers shapes individual vaccination choices in social networks.