The politics of grand strategy in an emerging state: a case study on Philippine diplomacy toward China
The politics of grand strategy in an emerging state: a case study on Philippine diplomacy toward China
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新兴国家的大战略政治：菲律宾对华外交案例研究
DOI：
10.1080/24761028.2023.2188354
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Takagi Yusuke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Takahiro Endo;Tomoki Iizuka;Hitomi Koga and Nahoko Hamada.;伊藤豊;遠藤崇浩・飯塚智規;遠藤崇浩;楊海英;Takagi Yusuke
2016年杜特尔特告别美国后，一些观察家预计菲律宾对华外交将发生巨大变化。然而，六年后，菲律宾仍然是美国的盟友伙伴。得益于美国的财政和技术支持，菲律宾国防机构增强了其海域意识能力。外交部（DFA）维持常设仲裁法院（PCA）做出的有利于菲律宾而非中国的裁决。本文通过构建新兴国家的大战略政治，揭示了菲律宾的决策过程。大战略是一种明确外交政策总体方向的知识架构，由不受外交办公室限制的多个国家行为体制定。不对称的权力关系和总统权力都无法主宰菲律宾外交的方向。总统、外交部和国防部门已经为制定特定政策奠定了制度基础。一旦他们在20世纪90年代制定了大战略，历届政策制定者并没有取消它，而是逐步改变它，特别是在2010年代，当时他们面临着中国的一系列强硬行动。作为一个国家能力有限的新兴国家，菲律宾决策者之间并不总是能够很好地协调，但仍然保持一定程度的自主权来制定特定政策。针对弱国家的主导框架，本文认为，菲律宾决策者展示了国家实现其政策目标的能力，即使存在局限性。
Some observers expected a drastic change in the Philippines’ diplomacy toward China when Rodrigo Duterte said goodbye to the United States in 2016. However, after six years, the Philippines has remained an allied partner of the United States. The Philippines’ defense establishment bolstered its maritime domain awareness capacity thanks to financial and technical support from the United States. Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) maintained the award from the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) favoring the Philippines over China. This paper sheds light on the Philippines’ policymaking process by framing the politics of grand strategy in an emerging state. The grand strategy is an intellectual architecture to clarify the general direction of foreign policy shaped by multiple state actors who are not limited by the foreign affairs office. Neither asymmetrical power relations nor presidential power can dominate the direction of the Philippines’ diplomacy. The president, the DFA, and the defense establishment have developed institutional foundations to craft particular policies. Once they designed the grand strategy in the 1990s, successive policymakers did not remove it but rather incrementally changed it, especially in the 2010s, when they faced a series of assertive actions from China. In an emerging state with limited state capacity, Filipino policymakers do not always coordinate well with each other but still maintain a certain level of autonomy to create particular policies. Against the dominant framework of the weak state, this paper argues that Filipino policymakers demonstrate the state’s capacity to achieve their policy goals, even with limitations.