Simulating decadal coastal morphodynamics
Simulating decadal coastal morphodynamics
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DOI：
10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.10.015
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发表时间：
2016-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
R. Nicholls;J. French;B. Maanen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Nicholls;J. French;B. Maanen
沿海地貌系统为人类提供了许多至关重要的服务，包括防止洪水和侵蚀危害、多样化的栖息地和舒适价值（Agardy 等，2005；Jones 等，2011）。然而，这些系统正在广泛经历退化，这在很大程度上可归因于人类干扰的累积的直接和间接影响。沉积物输入量和吞吐量的下降常常是推动海岸逐渐侵蚀的一个因素（Valiela，2006；Nicholls 等，2007）。这种缺乏沉积物的系统降低了恢复力，并进一步受到人类引起的气候变化的威胁，这不仅是因为海平面加速上升，而且还因为波浪和潮汐气候可能发生的变化（Wong等人，2014）。与此同时，社会开始制定更具战略性的计划，以保护和维持不断增长的沿海人口和经济，并应对栖息地的退化（Nicholls等人，2013）。这不可避免地带来了预测沿海地貌行为的挑战，我们在此称之为中尺度（长度尺度为 10 1 至 10 2 公里，时间尺度为 10 1 至 10 2 年）。这种规模的地貌演化涉及广泛的驱动因素，这些驱动因素控制着沿海系统的功能并决定它们如何应对外部干扰。除了自然过程之外，还需要考虑人为干预的作用，包括过去几十年甚至更长时间里普遍存在的工程干预遗留问题。
Coastal geomorphic systems provide many services of key importance to humankind, including protection from flood and erosion hazards, diverse habitats and amenity values (Agardy et al., 2005; Jones et al., 2011). However, these systems are widely undergoing degradation that can be substantially attributed to the cumulative direct and indirect effects of human interference. Declining sediment inputs and throughputs are frequently a factor driving a shift towards progressive coastal erosion (Valiela, 2006; Nicholls et al., 2007). Such sediment starved systems have reduced resilience and are further threatened by humaninduced climate change, not only due to accelerated sea-level rise, but also through possible shifts in wave and surge climate (Wong et al., 2014).At the same time, society is starting to plan more strategically to protect and sustain growing coastal populations and economies, as well as to counter habitat decline (Nicholls et al., 2013). This inevitably leads to the challenge of predicting coastal geomorphic behaviour at what we term here the mesoscale (of the order of 10 1 to 10 2 km length scales and 10 1 to 10 2 year timescales). Geomorphic evolution at this scale involves a broad range of drivers that govern the functioning of coastal systems and determine how they will respond to external disturbances. As well as natural processes, the role of human intervention needs to be considered, including the pervasive legacy of engineering interventions over the preceding decades and even longer.