Conserving Bird Biodiversity: Predicting the impact of environmental change
Conserving Bird Biodiversity: Predicting the impact of environmental change
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保护鸟类生物多样性：预测环境变化的影响
DOI：
10.1017/cbo9780511606304.010
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
0.5
通讯作者：
R. Stillman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Norris;R. Stillman
现代保护生物学的大部分内容涉及了解过去和/或正在进行的环境变化对动植物种群的影响。这项工作有很多方面，例如，包括诊断不同空间尺度上人口下降的原因以及管理极度濒危的种群（见第 6--8 章）。越来越多的保护生物学家被要求展望未来并评估人们如何应对未来的环境变化。在这方面，环境变化可能包括自然资源保护主义者本身的活动或不活动、环境的大规模变化，例如全球变暖（参见 Houghton 1997 年的回顾和第 8 章），或人类活动在不同规模上对环境的直接影响，例如栖息地丧失和破碎化（参见第 10 章）。为了展望未来，自然资源保护主义者需要预测工具。如果没有预测工具，关于未来环境变化影响的争论就会被教条所主导。然而，为了为辩论提供信息，保护主义者需要可靠的预测工具，使他们能够量化和评估环境变化对重要人群的影响。在本章中，我们批判性地回顾了预测工具（生态模型），自然资源保护主义者越来越多地使用这些工具来预测未来人口面对广泛的环境变化时的行为方式。本章的结构是先概述特定的生态模型，然后再详细介绍其在各种鸟类保护问题中的应用。接下来，讨论模型的可靠性并就如何正确使用模型提出建议。
Much of modern conservation biology concerns understanding the impact of past and/or ongoing environmental change on animal and plant populations. This work has many facets including, for example, diagnosing causes of population declines at various spatial scales and managing critically endangered populations (see Chapters 6--8). Increasingly, conservation biologists are being asked to look into the future and assess how populations might respond to future environmental change. In this respect, environmental change might include the activity or inactivity of conservationists themselves, large-scale changes in the environment such as global warming (see Houghton 1997 for a review, and Chapter 8), or the direct impact of human activities on the environment at various levels of scale, for example habitat loss and fragmentation (see Chapter 10). To look into the future conservationists need predictive tools. Without predictive tools, debate about the impact of future environmental change becomes dominated by dogma. However, to inform debate conservationists need reliable predictive tools that allow them to quantify and assess the impacts of environmental change on important populations. In this chapter, we critically review predictive tools (ecological models) that are becoming increasingly used by conservationists for forecasting how populations might behave in the future, in the face of a broad range of environmental changes. The chapter is structured so that particular ecological models are outlined in principle, before detailing their application to various bird conservation problems. Next, the reliability of models is discussed and suggestions made about how they might be used appropriately.