Effects of changes in permit-to-purchase handgun laws in Connecticut and Missouri on suicide rates
Effects of changes in permit-to-purchase handgun laws in Connecticut and Missouri on suicide rates
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ypmed.2015.07.013
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发表时间：
2015-10-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Webster, Daniel W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crifasi, Cassandra K.;Meyers, John Speed;Webster, Daniel W.
客观的。 2013年，美国有超过40,000人死于自杀。限制使用致命手段有可能防止自杀，因为自杀念头往往是短暂的。手枪购买许可（PTP）法可能会使有自杀风险的人更难购买手枪，从而潜在地减少自杀率。方法。我们使用准实验研究设计和年度州级自杀数据来评估康涅狄格州和密苏里州 PTP 法律的变化。分析了 1981 年至 2012 年的数据。我们使用综合控制模型作为估计政策效果的主要方法。与计量经济学模型相比，该方法可以更好地预测 PTP 法律变更前两个州的 PTP 法律变更趋势，因此可能提供更准确的政策效果估计。结果。综合控制模型估计，与康涅狄格州 PTP 法相关的枪支自杀率降低了 15.4%。密苏里州 PTP 法的废除与枪支自杀率增加 16.1% 有关。 PTP 法律与非枪支自杀率相关的证据在康涅狄格州好坏参半，而在密苏里州则呈阴性。结论。研究结果与之前的研究一致，即枪支的可用性与自杀风险增加以及与 PTP 手枪法相关的自杀风险降低有关。 (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. 保留所有权利。
Objective. In 2013, more than 40,000 individuals died from suicide in the United States. Restricting access to lethal means has the potential to prevent suicide, as suicidal thoughts are often transient. Permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws for handguns could potentially reduce suicides by making it more difficult for persons at risk of suicide to purchase a handgun.Methods. We used a quasi-experimental research design with annual, state-level suicide data to evaluate changes to PTP laws in Connecticut and Missouri. Data were analyzed for 1981-2012. We used synthetic control modeling as the primary method to estimate policy effects. This methodology provided better prediction of pre-PTP-law-change trends in the two states with PTP law changes than econometric models and is thus likely to provide more accurate estimates of policy effects.Results. The synthetic control model estimated a 15.4% reduction in firearm suicide rates associated with Connecticut's PTP law. Missouri's PTP law repeal was associated with a 16.1% increase in firearm suicide rates. Evidence that PTP laws were associated with non-firearm suicide rates was mixed in Connecticut and negative in Missouri.Conclusion. The findings are consistent with prior research linking firearm availability to increased risk of suicide and lower suicide risks associated with PTP handgun laws. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.