A comparison of the 31 January–1 February 1953 and 5–6 December 2013 coastal flood events around the UK
A comparison of the 31 January–1 February 1953 and 5–6 December 2013 coastal flood events around the UK
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1953年1月31日至2月1日和2013年12月5日至6日英国各地沿海洪水事件的比较
DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2015.00084
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
E. Bradshaw
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Wadey;I. Haigh;R. Nicholls;Jennifer Brown;K. Horsburgh;B. Carroll;S. Gallop;T. Mason;E. Bradshaw
1953年1月31日至2月1日，北海的风暴潮引发了欧洲西北部有史以来最严重的沿海洪水。这一事件导致英格兰、荷兰和比利时海岸2，000多人死亡。在英国，在这项研究的重点，这一事件是一个关键的影响，洪水风险管理。随后的进展包括国家验潮网、风暴潮预报和警报服务以及泰晤士河屏障等重大防御升级。大约60年后，2013年12月5日至6日，风暴“Xaver”产生了类似规模的浪涌事件。本文从以下几个方面详细比较了英国这两次洪灾：（1）气象条件;（2）观测到的高海平面;（3）沿海洪灾及其影响。1953年的风暴有一个更偏南的路径，并产生了更大的海浪，这是由于东安格利亚近海的西北偏北风。2013年的风暴从北大西洋到斯堪的纳维亚半岛有一个更西向东的路径。因此，1953年的高沃茨在北海南部更为极端。然而，2013年的事件恰逢更大的天文潮汐，导致更大的空间“足迹”（受极端高沃茨和洪水影响的海岸线长度）。极端的海平面影响了西海岸、东海岸和南海岸的社区，在2013年的事件中，有2,800处房产被洪水淹没，而1953年主要是亨伯和泰晤士河之间的24,000处房产。1953年的洪水仍然是英国在防御失败，财产和基础设施受损以及生命损失方面潜在洪水后果的现代基准。1953年后采取的措施大大减轻了2013年12月5日至6日风暴的后果。然而，后一次事件提醒人们注意全国范围的沿海风暴事件和影响的可能性。持续监测极端海平面及其后果对于为未来规划和复原力提供现实的视角至关重要。
A North Sea storm surge during 31 January-1 February 1953 caused Northwest Europe’s most severe coastal flood in living memory. This event killed more than 2,000 people on the coasts of England, the Netherlands and Belgium. In the UK, where this study focuses, this event was a pivotal influence for flood risk management. Subsequent progress included a national tide gauge network, a storm surge forecasting and warning service, and major defence upgrade such as the Thames Barrier. Almost 60-years later, on 5-6 December 2013 Storm “Xaver” generated a surge event of similar magnitude. This paper describes a detailed comparison of these two events in the UK in terms of: (1) the meteorological conditions; (2) the observed high sea levels; and (3) the coastal flooding and impacts. The 1953 storm had a more southerly track and generated bigger waves due to the north-northwesterly onshore winds off East Anglia. The 2013 storm had a more west-to-east path from the north Atlantic to Scandinavia. Consequently, the 1953 high waters were more extreme in the southern North Sea. However, the 2013 event coincided with larger astronomical tides, resulting in a larger spatial ‘footprint’ (the length of coastline impacted by extreme high waters and floods). The extreme sea levels impacted communities on the west, east and south coasts, with 2,800 properties flooded during the 2013 event, compared to 24,000 properties mainly between the Humber and Thames in 1953. The 1953 floods remain a modern benchmark in the UK of potential flood consequences in terms of failed defences, damaged property and infrastructure and loss of life. Measures taken after 1953 greatly reduced the consequences of the 5-6 December 2013 storm. However, the latter event is a reminder of the potential for national-scale coastal storm events and impacts. Continued monitoring of extreme sea levels and their consequences is important to inform a realistic perspective on future planning and resilience.