RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions
RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2007117117
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发表时间：
2020-08-18
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Duffy, Philip B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schwalm, Christopher R.;Glendon, Spencer;Duffy, Philip B.
基于气候模拟的情景通常用于描述一系列可能的气候未来。尽管最近在弯曲排放曲线方面取得了一些进展，但 RCP8.5（全球气候模型假设的化石燃料使用中最激进的情景）将继续作为量化物理气候风险的有用工具，特别是在近中期政策相关的时间范围内。排放量不仅与 RCP8.5 一致，与历史累积 CO2 排放总量（1% 以内）非常一致，而且 RCP8.5 也是当前和既定政策下到本世纪中叶的最佳匹配，2100 年 CO2 排放水平仍然非常合理。
Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to charac-terize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent prog-ress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near-to midterm policy-relevant time horizons. Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated pol-icies with still highly plausible levels of CO2 emissions in 2100.