Plague in seventeenth-century Europe and the decline of Italy: an epidemiological hypothesis
Plague in seventeenth-century Europe and the decline of Italy: an epidemiological hypothesis
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DOI：
10.1093/ereh/het013
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Alfani, Guido
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alfani, Guido
这篇文章比较了世纪鼠疫对整个欧洲的影响。它表明，这种疾病对南欧的影响比北欧严重得多。到目前为止，意大利是受灾最严重的地区。本文使用一个新的数据库，引入了文献中尚未考虑的流行病学变量：传染病的地域渗透性。在解释鼠疫对不同地区的影响时，这一变量比当地死亡率更相关。世纪，传染病而不是经济困难在意大利造成了严重的人口危机。瘟疫对意大利半岛的经济造成了冲击，这可能是意大利与新兴的北方欧洲国家相比开始相对衰落的关键。
This article compares the impact of plague across Europe during the seventeenth century. It shows that the disease affected southern Europe much more severely than the north. Italy was by far the area worst struck. Using a new database, the article introduces an epidemiological variable that has not been considered in the literature: territorial pervasiveness of the contagion. This variable is much more relevant than local mortality rates in accounting for the different regional impact of plague. Epidemics, and not economic hardship, generated a severe demographic crisis in Italy during the seventeenth century. Plague caused a shock to the economy of the Italian peninsula that might have been key in starting its relative decline compared with the emerging northern European countries.