A nice day for an infection? Weather conditions and social contact patterns relevant to influenza transmission.
A nice day for an infection? Weather conditions and social contact patterns relevant to influenza transmission.
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感染的美好一天？与流感传播相关的天气状况和社会接触模式。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0048695
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Beutels P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Willem L;Van Kerckhove K;Chao DL;Hens N;Beutels P
尽管在每年的流感流行期间无疑会发生显著的发病率和死亡率，但催化季节性流感传播的背景环境的作用仍不清楚。天气条件被认为会影响病毒的存活、传播效率和宿主免疫力，但季节性也可能是由于人们在恶劣天气期间聚集在室内的趋势。为了验证这一假设，我们结合了来自比利时社会接触调查的数据和当地的天气数据。在之前没有对社会接触模式进行深入的天气影响分析的情况下，我们探索了可能性并确定了陷阱。我们发现，在天气条件下，白天类型（周末，假日，工作日）的一般优势，但尽管如此，观察到在正常工作日，温度低，几乎没有降水和空气绝对湿度低，长时间接触（1小时）的增加。有趣的是，这些条件通常被认为有利于病毒的存活和传播。需要进一步的研究来确定天气对社会交往的影响。我们建议未来的研究在广泛的天气条件和白天类型中进行采样，并包括足够大比例的假期和周末。
Although there is no doubt that significant morbidity and mortality occur during annual influenza epidemics, the role of contextual circumstances, which catalyze seasonal influenza transmission, remains unclear. Weather conditions are believed to affect virus survival, efficiency of transmission and host immunity, but seasonality may also be driven by a tendency of people to congregate indoors during periods of bad weather. To test this hypothesis, we combined data from a social contact survey in Belgium with local weather data. In the absence of a previous in-depth weather impact analysis of social contact patterns, we explored the possibilities and identified pitfalls. We found general dominance of day-type (weekend, holiday, working day) over weather conditions, but nonetheless observed an increase in long duration contacts (1 hour) on regular workdays with low temperatures, almost no precipitation and low absolute humidity of the air. Interestingly, these conditions are often assumed to be beneficial for virus survival and transmission. Further research is needed to establish the impact of the weather on social contacts. We recommend that future studies sample over a broad spectrum of weather conditions and day types and include a sufficiently large proportion of holiday periods and weekends.