Global trends in tropical cyclone risk
Global trends in tropical cyclone risk
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1410
复制
发表时间：
2012-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Nordbeck, O.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peduzzi, P.;Chatenoux, B.;Nordbeck, O.
热带气旋对人类的影响取决于受影响的人数及其脆弱性，以及风暴的频率和强度。气候变化、人口结构和脆弱性的累积效应将如何影响风险？传统上，评估热带气旋风险趋势的报告是基于所报告的损失，但这些数据因信息获取途径的改善而存在偏差。在此，我们提出一种基于数千次实际观测到的事件及相关背景参数的新方法。我们表明，死亡风险取决于热带气旋强度、暴露程度、贫困水平和治理情况。尽管预计热带气旋的频率会降低，但预计在未来20年人口压力和热带气旋强度都会增加，这可能会导致每年暴露的人数大幅增加，并加剧灾害风险，尽管在发展和治理方面可能会有进展。
The impact of tropical cyclones on humans depends on the number of people exposed and their vulnerability, as well as the frequency and intensity of storms. How will the cumulative effects of climate change, demography and vulnerability affect risk? Conventionally, reports assessing tropical cyclone risk trends are based on reported losses, but these figures are biased by improvements to information access. Here we present a new methodology based on thousands of physically observed events and related contextual parameters. We show that mortality risk depends on tropical cyclone intensity, exposure, levels of poverty and governance. Despite the projected reduction in the frequency of tropical cyclones, projected increases in both demographic pressure and tropical cyclone intensity over the next 20 years can be expected to greatly increase the number of people exposed per year and exacerbate disaster risk, despite potential progression in development and governance.