Rising Powers, Status Ambitions, and the Need to Reassure: What China Could Learn from Imperial Germany’s Failures
Rising Powers, Status Ambitions, and the Need to Reassure: What China Could Learn from Imperial Germany’s Failures
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崛起的大国、地位野心以及安抚的需要：中国可以从德意志帝国的失败中学到什么
DOI：
10.1093/cjip/pou029
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Reinhard Wolf
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Reinhard Wolf
这篇文章关注的是一战前德国的崛起与中国目前的崛起之间不祥的相似之处。它将表明，对国家地位的担忧强烈地影响了1914年危机的灾难性升级和之前几年日益加剧的敌对情绪。会议将特别强调相互“误解”在英德关系逐渐恶化中所起的作用。由于两国国内和国际环境的惊人相似，德国对地位的过度执着的后果与当代中国高度相关。如果中国想要避免导致凯撒帝国自我包围的政策错误，它需要更多地关注正在进行的权力转移、海上安全困境和过度的公众地位担忧中的危险反馈。中国应该采取更多措施，确保外界对其善意的信任比其国际野心和军事实力增长得更快。除其他外，这需要尽早解决持续不断的领土争端，缓和国内的沙文主义言论，为倡导国际合作的发言者提供更大的回旋余地，并增加对多边机构的投资。对于北京的合作伙伴来说，他们必须通过促进中国地位的提升来鼓励这种自我约束的政策，特别是通过在这些机构中给予北京更大的话语权。
This article focuses on the ominous parallels between the rise of Germany before World War I and China’s ongoing ascendance. It will demonstrate that concerns about national status strongly affected both the fateful escalation of the 1914 crisis and the growing antagonisms of the years preceding. Special emphasis will be given to the role that mutual ‘misrecognition’ played in the gradual deterioration of Anglo–German relations. The consequences of Germany’s excessive fixation on status are highly relevant for contemporary China, due to the startling similarities between both countries’ domestic and international settings. If China wants to avoid the policy errors that led to the Kaiserreich’s self-encirclement it needs to pay more attention to dangerous feedbacks among ongoing power shifts, maritime security dilemmas and extravagant public status concerns. China should do more to ensure that external trust in its benign intentions grows faster than its international ambitions and military power. This requires, among other things, an early settlement of ongoing territorial disputes, a toning down of jingoistic domestic discourses, enhanced leeway for speakers advocating international cooperation, and higher investment in multilateral institutions. Beijing’s partners, for their part, must encourage such selfbinding policies by facilitating China’s rise in status, specifically by giving Beijing a greater say in these institutions.