Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability
Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability
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DOI：
10.1002/2017gl075370
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发表时间：
2017-12
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hongmei Li;T. Ilyina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hongmei Li;T. Ilyina
我们使用基于马克斯·普朗克研究所地球系统模型 (MPI-ESM) 的 100 个集合模拟来研究海洋碳吸收的内部年代际变化。我们发现，在年代际时间尺度上，内部变率（集合扩散）与强制时间变率（集合平均值）一样大，并且最大的内部变率出现在主要碳汇区域，即南大洋、北太平洋和北大西洋的50-65°S带。 MPI-ESM 系综产生了海洋碳吸收的 10 年正向和负向趋势，与观测估计一致。在 RCP4.5 情景下，预计未来将出现负十年趋势。由于内部变率较大，南大洋和北太平洋需要最多的集合成员（分别超过 53 和 46）来重现强制年代际趋势。随着二氧化碳排放轨迹的变化，这个数字在未来几十年将增加到 79。
We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI‐ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50–65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI‐ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.