The impacts of China's household consumption expenditure patterns on energy demand and carbon emissions towards 2050
The impacts of China's household consumption expenditure patterns on energy demand and carbon emissions towards 2050
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.023
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发表时间：
2012-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Fujimori, Shinichiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dai, Hancheng;Masui, Toshihiko;Fujimori, Shinichiro
本文探讨了2005-2050年中国居民消费模式在两种基准情景下对能源需求和二氧化碳排放的影响，以及在相应的碳减排情景下对碳价格和经济成本的影响。为此，我们首先使用Working-Leser模型，考虑到总支出增长和城市化，提出了到2050年的两种可能的家庭消费支出模式。为了比较，这两种支出模式，然后纳入一个混合递归动态可计算一般均衡模型。结果表明，随着收入水平的提高，在未来几十年，家庭的直接和间接能源需求和CO2排放量将急剧上升。当家庭支出从物质产品和运输转向面向服务的商品时，从2005年到2050年的45年期间将节省约21，000公吨标准煤（1）的一次能源和450亿吨二氧化碳排放。此外，非物质化减排情景下的碳价格将在2050年下降13%，从而降低经济成本。2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
This paper explores how China's household consumption patterns over the period 2005-2050 influence the total energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in two baseline scenarios, and how it influences carbon prices as well as the economic cost in the corresponding carbon mitigation scenarios. To this end we first put forward two possible household consumption expenditure patterns up to 2050 using the Working-Leser model, taking into account total expenditure increase and urbanization. For comparison, both expenditure patterns are then incorporated in a hybrid recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results reveal that as income level increases in the coming decades, the direct and indirect household energy requirements and CO2 emissions would rise drastically. When household expenditure shifts from material products and transport to service-oriented goods, around 21,000 mtce(1) of primary energy and 45 billion tons of CO2 emissions would be saved over the 45-year period from 2005 to 2050. Moreover, carbon prices in the dematerialized mitigation scenario would fall by 13% in 2050, thus reducing the economic cost. 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.