Simplicity out of complexity in environmental modelling: Occam's razor revisited.
Simplicity out of complexity in environmental modelling: Occam's razor revisited.
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环境建模中的复杂性变得简单：奥卡姆剃刀的重新审视。
DOI：
10.1080/02664769624206
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发表时间：
1996
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
M. Lees
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Young;S. Parkinson;M. Lees
虽然大型模型的基础上确定性还原论哲学在环境研究中发挥了重要作用，这是有利的，考虑替代建模方法，公开承认大多数环境系统的定义不明确和不确定性。本文讨论了这一主题，并提出了一个综合的统计建模过程，其中涉及三个主要的方法工具：不确定性和灵敏度的研究，基于蒙特卡罗模拟技术;主模式分析，使用一种新的方法相结合的线性化和模型阶减少;和基于数据的机械建模。这种新的方法说明了两个实际的例子：模拟全球碳循环可能的气候变化;和模拟自动气候控制系统设计的目的园艺温室。
While large models based on a deterministic-reductionist philosophy have an important part to play in environmental research, it is advantageous to consider alternative modelling methodologies which overtly acknowledge the poorly defined and uncertain nature of most environmental systems. The paper discusses this topic and presents an integrated statistical modelling procedure which involves three main methodological tools: uncertainty and sensitivity studies based on Monte Carlo simulation techniques; dominant mode analysis using a new method of combined linearization and model-order reduction; and data-based mechanistic modelling. This novel approach is illustrated by two practical examples: modelling the global carbon cycle in relation to possible climate change; and modelling a horticultural glasshouse for the purposes of automatic climate control system design.