Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture: A case of study of coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico
Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture: A case of study of coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-006-9066-x
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发表时间：
2006-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Villers, L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gay, C.;Estrada, F.;Villers, L.
本文探讨了韦拉克鲁斯州咖啡产量与气候和经济变量之间的关系，以估计气候变化的潜在影响。为此，根据这些变量开发了计量经济学模型。该模型通过统计分析进行验证，然后用于预测不同气候条件下的咖啡产量。考虑到观测到的气候变量趋势将持续到 2020 年，气候变化情景的产生。提出了一种为未来气候变化构建简单概率情景的方法，并用于评估气候变化超出平均值变化预期的可能影响。该模型表明，温度是咖啡生产最相关的气候因素，因为生产对季节性温度模式有显着响应。 2020 年气候变化条件的预测结果表明，咖啡生产对于生产者来说可能在经济上不可行，因为该模型显示当前产量减少了 34%。尽管不同的经济变量（州和国际咖啡价格、咖啡效益原材料的生产者价格指数、全国和美国咖啡库存）被认为具有潜在相关性，但我们的模型表明，州实际最低工资可以被视为最重要的经济变量。实际最低工资在这里被解释为咖啡生产所用劳动力价格的代表。墨西哥的这项活动属于劳动密集型行业，占咖啡生产成本的 80%。正如预期的那样，如此重要的生产要素价格上涨会增加生产成本，并对生产产生强烈的负面影响。在制定未来的生产情景时，考虑了对 2020 年实际最低工资如何演变的不同假设。
This paper explores the relation between coffee production and climatic and economic variables in Veracruz in order to estimate the potential impacts of climate change. For this purpose, an econometric model is developed in terms of those variables. The model is validated by means of statistical analysis, and then used to project coffee production under different climatic conditions. Climate change scenarios are produced considering that the observed trends of climate variables will continue to prevail until the year 2020. An approach for constructing simple probability scenarios for future climate variability is presented and used to assess possible impacts of climate change beyond what is expected from changes in mean values.The model shows that temperature is the most relevant climatic factor for coffee production, since production responds significantly to seasonal temperature patterns. The results for the projected climate change conditions for year 2020 indicate that coffee production might not be economically viable for producers, since the model indicates a reduction of 34% of the current production.Although different economic variables (the state and international coffee prices, a producer price index for raw materials for coffee benefit, the national and the USA coffee stocks) were considered as potentially relevant, our model suggests that the state real minimum wage could be regarded as the most important economic variable. Real minimum wage is interpreted here as a proxy for the price of labor employed for coffee production. This activity in Mexico is very labor intensive representing up to 80% of coffee production costs. As expected, increments in the price of such an important production factor increase production costs and have strong negative effects on production. Different assumptions on how real minimum wage could evolve for the year 2020 are considered for developing future production scenarios.