Booms and Busts
Booms and Busts
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繁荣与萧条
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发表时间：
2003
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通讯作者：
Nils Gottfries
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作者：
Nils Gottfries
2003 年 12 月 9 日 Nils Gottfries* 乌普萨拉大学 即使汇率出现与当前基本面无关的波动，浮动汇率与明确的通胀目标相结合也可以成为强大的稳定剂。在合理的情况下，大部分稳定将通过汇率实现，基本面冲击将产生相当大的中期汇率波动。动车组内部不对称冲击的后果比 Calmfors 等人对动车组项目的早期分析中设想的更严重。 （1997）。通货膨胀和实际利率差异的出现加剧了成员国的失衡并导致繁荣-萧条周期。关键词：最优货币区、不完全竞争、利率平价、实际利率。 JEL 代码：E31、E32、E42、F41。
9 December 2003 Nils Gottfries* Uppsala University A floating exchange rate combined with a clear inflation target can be a powerful stabilizer even if there are fluctuations in exchange rates that are unrelated to current fundamentals,. Under plausible conditions, most of the stabilisation will occur through the exchange rate, and fundamental shocks will generate considerable medium term exchange rate volatility. The consequences of asymmetric shocks inside EMU are worse than envisaged in early analyses of the EMU project such as Calmfors et al. (1997). Inflation and real interest rate differentials arise which magnify the imbalances and cause boom-bust cycles in the member countries. Keywords: optimal currency area, imperfect competition, interest parity, real interest rate. JEL codes: E31, E32, E42, F41.