Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: an integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation
Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: an integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation
复制标题
减轻气候政策成本的不平等：缓解、损害和适应的综合视角
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074015
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
D. V. van Vuuren
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. De Cian;A. Hof;G. Marangoni;M. Tavoni;D. V. van Vuuren
公平考虑在国际气候谈判中发挥着重要作用。虽然政策分析往往侧重于与缓解成本有关的公平，但在适应成本和残余损害程度方面存在很大的区域差异。本文通过确定排放配额的分配将如何变化以抵消总气候成本（定义为减缓、适应和剩余损害的成本）的区域差异，说明了将适应和剩余损害纳入公平考虑的相关性。我们将全球碳税导致的排放水平与全球总量控制与交易体系下的两种排放配额分配进行了比较：一种是减排成本，另一种是总气候成本占GDP的比例。为了考虑缓解和适应的不确定性，我们采用了模型比较方法，采用了两种可选择的建模框架，对损害、适应成本和缓解成本进行了不同的估算，并研究了两种不同的气候目标。尽管存在已确定的模型不确定性，但我们得出了明确的结果，即排放配额分配的变化可以通过与排放交易相关的金融转移来减少适应成本和剩余损害的不平等分配。
Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading.