A Land Use Regression Model for Ultrafine Particles in Vancouver, Canada
A Land Use Regression Model for Ultrafine Particles in Vancouver, Canada
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DOI：
10.1021/es304495s
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发表时间：
2013-05-21
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Brauer, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Abernethy, Rebecca C.;Allen, Ryan W.;Brauer, Michael
长期接触超细颗粒物(UFP)的方法有助于阐明潜在的健康影响。由于北美不定期监测UFP，时空模型是一种潜在的暴露评估方法。为建立土地利用回归(LUR)模型，使用便携式凝结颗粒物计数器测量颗粒物数量浓度(PNC)。在为期两周的采样活动中，在80个地点测量了60分钟的风速和风向。我们在另外四个地点进行了持续监测，以评估时间变化。LUR模型利用了135个潜力。地理预测因素包括：道路长度、车辆密度、餐馆密度、人口密度、土地利用等。一种新的方法通过风玫瑰将气象数据纳入其中，作为传统圆形缓冲区的替代。不同地点的PNC测量范围(60分钟中位数)变化70倍(1,500-105000颗粒/厘米(3)，平均[SD]=18200[15900]颗粒/厘米(3))。PNC与同时测量的两周平均NOx浓度之间的相关性为0.6-0.7。PNC Lur模型(R-2=0.48，留一交叉验证R-2=0.32)包括卡车路线长度在50米以内，餐厅密度在200米以内，与港口的距离代表着北美第一个UFP Lur模型。包含风玫瑰的模型不能解释测量的PNC中的更多变异性。
Methods to characterize chronic exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) can help to clarify potential health effects. Since UFP are not routinely monitored in North America, spatiotemporal models are one potential exposure assessment methodology. Portable condensation particle counters were used to measure particle number concentrations (PNC) to develop a land use regression (LUR) model. PNC, wind speed and direction were measured for sixty minutes at eighty locations during a two-week sampling campaign. We conducted continuous monitoring at four additional locations to assess temporal variation. LUR modeling utilized 135 potential. geographic predictors including: road length, vehicle density, restaurant density, population density, land use and others. A novel approach incorporated meteorological data through wind roses as alternates to traditional circular buffers. The range of measured.(sixty-minute median) PNC across locations varied seventy-fold (1500-105000 particles/cm(3), mean [SD] = 18200 [15900] particles/cm(3)). Correlations between PNC and concurrently measured two-week average NOx concentrations were 0.6-0.7. A PNC LUR model, (R-2 = 0.48, leave-one-out cross validation R-2 = 0.32) including truck route length Within 50 m, restaurant density within 200 m, and In-distance to the port represents the first UFP LUR model in North America. Models incorporating wind roses did not explain more variability in measured PNC.