A horizon scan of future threats and opportunities for pollinators and pollination.
A horizon scan of future threats and opportunities for pollinators and pollination.
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作者：
Brown MJ;Dicks LV;Paxton RJ;Baldock KC;Barron AB;Chauzat MP;Freitas BM;Goulson D;Jepsen S;Kremen C;Li J;Neumann P;Pattemore DE;Potts SG;Schweiger O;Seymour CL;Stout JC
背景传粉者提供农业和生态上必不可少的授粉服务，在全球范围内受到威胁。栖息地的丧失和同质化，杀虫剂，寄生虫和病原体，入侵物种和气候变化已被确定为过去和现在对传粉者的威胁。减轻这些威胁的行动，例如，农业环境计划和暂停使用农药的规定是存在的，但基本上是事后适用的。然而，未来传粉媒介及其提供的服务的可持续性需要在潜在威胁和机会发生之前预测它们，从而能够及时实施政策和做法，以防止而不是缓解传粉媒介的进一步减少。方法：我们使用水平扫描方法确定了在未来三十年内可能对传粉者产生积极或消极影响的问题。结果：我们的分析突出了六个高优先级和九个次要问题。高度优先事项是：（1）全球农业的公司控制，（2）新型内吸性农药，（3）新型RNA病毒，（4）新的受管理的传粉者的发展，（5）气候变化下更频繁的热浪和干旱，以及（6）减少化学品使用对非农业环境中传粉者的潜在积极影响。讨论虽然目前的传粉媒介管理方法主要是通过减轻过去的影响来驱动的，但我们为先发制人的做法，立法和政策提供了机会，以便为后代可持续地管理传粉媒介。
Background. Pollinators, which provide the agriculturally and ecologically essential service of pollination, are under threat at a global scale. Habitat loss and homogenisation, pesticides, parasites and pathogens, invasive species, and climate change have been identified as past and current threats to pollinators. Actions to mitigate these threats, e.g., agri-environment schemes and pesticide-use moratoriums, exist, but have largely been applied post-hoc. However, future sustainability of pollinators and the service they provide requires anticipation of potential threats and opportunities before they occur, enabling timely implementation of policy and practice to prevent, rather than mitigate, further pollinator declines. Methods.Using a horizon scanning approach we identified issues that are likely to impact pollinators, either positively or negatively, over the coming three decades. Results.Our analysis highlights six high priority, and nine secondary issues. High priorities are: (1) corporate control of global agriculture, (2) novel systemic pesticides, (3) novel RNA viruses, (4) the development of new managed pollinators, (5) more frequent heatwaves and drought under climate change, and (6) the potential positive impact of reduced chemical use on pollinators in non-agricultural settings. Discussion. While current pollinator management approaches are largely driven by mitigating past impacts, we present opportunities for pre-emptive practice, legislation, and policy to sustainably manage pollinators for future generations.