Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022
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发表时间：
2012-06-01
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Cornford, Stephen L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gladstone, Rupert M.;Lee, Victoria;Cornford, Stephen L.
流线冰盖模型耦合到空腔环流的箱形模型，并为松岛冰川配置。从1900年到2200年进行了5000次模拟的合奏，不同的输入和参数，迫使由区域海洋模型预测的A1B“一切照旧”的排放情景下的海洋温度。与最近的观测结果进行比较，以提供95%置信度集形式的校准预测。预测是单调的（除了在少数情况下的一些小规模的波动）撤退的接地线在未来200年的撤退率具有巨大的不确定性。在世纪，PIG的主干完全崩溃仍然是一种可能性。(C)2012 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B 'business as usual' emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.