Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain
Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain
复制标题
华北平原区域农作物产量、耗水量和利用效率及其对气候变化的响应
DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2009.05.017
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发表时间：
2009-11-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Guo, Ruiping
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mo, Xingguo;Liu, Suxia;Guo, Ruiping
中国平原北部是中国最重要的粮食产区之一，其农业系统受气候变化的影响较大，容易受到水分胁迫的影响。应用植被界面过程模型对冬小麦(Triticum Aestivum L)夏玉米(Zea Mays L.)的产量、耗水和水分利用效率进行了研究。1951年至2006年两熟制在华北地区的应用。他们对全球气候变化委员会(HadCM3)与政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC SRES)A2和B1排放特别报告预测的21世纪未来气候情景的反应进行了调查。结果表明，近56年来作物产量快速提高，ET略有增加，WUE明显改善。作物产量存在着主要由土壤质量和灌溉设施决定的空间格局。对于气候变化的影响，冬小麦产量将显著增加，A2的最大增产率出现在20世纪70年代，增幅为19%，而B1的最大增幅在20世纪60年代达到13%。它的ET在A2和B1场景下都略有加强，不到6%，导致A2和B1场景下的WUE分别提高了10%和7%。相比之下，A2情景的夏玉米产量将温和下降15%，B1情景的夏季玉米产量将温和下降12%。其ET自20世纪50年代以来明显增加，相对变化超过10%，导致20世纪90年代两种情景下的WUE都较低，相对变化超过25%。因此，应制定可能的适应对策，以减轻气候变化对国家大区农业生态系统可持续发展的负面影响。(C)2009爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most important regions for food production in China, with its agricultural system being significantly affected by the undergoing climate change and vulnerable with water stress. In this study, the Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model is used to evaluate crop yield, water consumption (ET), and water use efficiency (WUE) of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L)summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system in the NCP from 1951 to 2006. Their responses to future climate scenarios of 21st century projected by the GCM (HadCM3) with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenario (IPCC SRES) A2 and B1 emissions are investigated. The results show a rapid enhancement of crop yield in the past 56 years, accompanying with slight increment of ET and noticeable improvement of WUE. There exist spatial patterns of crop yield stemmed mainly from soil quality and irrigation facilities. For climate change impacts, it is found that winter wheat yield will significantly increase with the maximum increment in A2 occurring in 2070s with a value of 19%, whereas the maximum in B1 being 13% in 2060s. Its ET is slightly intensified, which is less than 6%, under both A2 and B1 scenarios, giving rise to the improvement of WUE by 10% and 7% under A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Comparatively, summer maize yield will gently decline by 15% for A2 and 12% for B1 scenario, respectively. Its ET is obviously increasing since 2050s with over 10% relative change, leading to a lower WUE with more than 25% relative change under both scenarios in 2090s. Therefore, possible adaptation countermeasures should be developed to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for the sustainable development of agro-ecosystems in the NCP. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.