Politics or economics? International migration during the Nicaraguan Contra War
Politics or economics? International migration during the Nicaraguan Contra War
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DOI：
10.1017/s0022216x04008594
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发表时间：
2005-02-01
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Massey, DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lundquist, JH;Massey, DS
在美国的中美洲人是否是“政治”或“经济”移民的问题一直被广泛争论，但很少有实证研究告知的争议。早期的研究主要依赖于横截面汇总数据。为了克服这些限制，我们借鉴了拉丁美洲移民项目最近在五个巴布亚社区进行的调查。使用回顾性数据，我们重建了一个家庭的移民到美国和哥斯达黎加的历史，从家庭形成的日期到调查日期，并将这些数据与国内生产总值和反战争暴力的国家级数据。虽然经济趋势预测了向哥斯达黎加和美国的移民，但美国移民与独立于经济动机的反战争暴力水平有更强的联系，特别是在一个互动模型中，该模型允许社交网络的更高战时影响。我们的结论是，在1980年代末和1990年代初，美国的反干预的直接结果是美国的移民到美国的高利率。这里部署的方法，这涉及到移民决策的时间，以宏观层面的国家趋势，使我们能够解决的问题，政治与经济动机的移民与更精确的比以前的工作。
The issue of whether Central Americans in the United States are 'political' or 'economic' migrants has been widely debated, yet little empirical research has informed the controversy. Earlier studies have relied primarily on cross-sectional aggregate data. In order to overcome these limitations we draw on recent surveys conducted in five Nicaraguan communities by the Latin American Migration Project. Using retrospective data, we reconstruct a history of a family's migration to the United States and Costa Rica from the date of household formation to the survey date and link these data to national-level data on GDP and Contra War violence. While out migration to both Costa Rica and the United States is predicted by economic trends, US-bound migration was more strongly linked to the level of Contra War violence independent of economic motivations, especially in an inter-active model that allows for a higher wartime effect of social networks. We conclude that elevated rates of Nicaraguan migration to the United States during the late 1980s and early 1990s were a direct result of the US-Contra intervention. The approach deployed here-which relates to the timing of migration decisions to macro-level country trends-enables us to address the issue of political versus economic motivations for migration with more precision than prior work.