Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century
Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century
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DOI：
10.1007/bf02886048
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发表时间：
2000-05
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ya-feng Shi;Shi-yin Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ya-feng Shi;Shi-yin Liu
中国冰川可分为海洋(温带)型、亚大陆型(亚极地)和极陆型(极地)3种类型，分别占现存冰川总面积(59406km2)的22%、46%和32%。研究表明，这三种类型的冰川对全球变暖的响应模式不同。小冰期盛期(17世纪)以来，气温平均上升1.3℃，冰川面积减少，相当于现今中国西部冰川总面积的20%。预计本世纪30年代、70年代和2100年代，中国西部气温升幅将分别在0.4-1.2K、1.2-2.7K和2.1K-4.0K量级。在这些情况下，到本世纪30年代、70年代和21世纪，中国的冰川将进一步萎缩12%、28%和45%。不确定度可能占中国2100年的30%-67%。
Glaciers in China can be categorized into 3 types, i.e. the maritime (temperate) type, sub-continental (sub-polar) type and extreme continental (polar) type, which take 22%, 46% and 32% of the total existing glacier area (59 406 km2) respectively. Researches indicate that glaciers of the three types show different response patterns to the global warming. Since the Maxima of the Little Ice Age (the 17th century), air temperature has risen at a magnitude of 1.3 ° C on average and the glacier area decreased corresponds to 20% of the present total glacier area in western China. It is estimated that air temperature rise in the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s will be of the order of 0.4–1.2, 1.2–2.7 and 2.1–4.0 K in western China. With these scenarios, glaciers in China will suffer from further shrinkage by 12%, 28% and 45% by the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s. The uncertainties may account for 30%–67% in 2100 in China.