Climate change or variability? The case of Yellow river as indicated by extreme maximum and minimum air temperature during 1960–2004
Climate change or variability? The case of Yellow river as indicated by extreme maximum and minimum air temperature during 1960–2004
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DOI：
10.1007/s00704-007-0328-y
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发表时间：
2008-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Qiang Zhang;Chong-yu Xu;Zeng-xin Zhang;G. Ren;Y. Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qiang Zhang;Chong-yu Xu;Zeng-xin Zhang;G. Ren;Y. Chen
利用黄河流域66个站点1960-2004年逐日气温资料，采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法，分析了黄河流域冬季极端低温事件和夏季极端高温事件的时空变化特征。在这项研究中，极端温度事件被定义为超过或低于日最高和日最低气温的各种阈值：高温事件的第90百分位数，第95百分位数;低温事件的第10百分位数和第5百分位数。分析结果表明：1）在>95%的置信水平下，黄河流域西部和北部站点的高温事件频率和强度呈显著上升趋势，而黄河中下游大部分站点的趋势不显著;（2）黄河流域冷事件频次呈明显下降趋势。冬季最低气温升高的站点也多于夏季最高气温变化的站点; 3）黄河流域年增暖趋势主要是冬季最低气温升高的结果。黄河上游气候变暖将对整个流域的水资源构成威胁，应引起当地决策者和水资源管理部门的关注。
The spatial and temporal variability of winter extreme low-temperature events and summer extreme high-temperature events was investigated using daily air temperature series (1960–2004) from 66 sites in the Yellow River basin, China, with the help of Mann–Kendall trend test method. In this study an extreme temperature event is defined by exceeding or falling below various threshold values of daily maximum and daily minimum air temperature: 90th percentile, 95th percentile for the high-temperature events; 10th percentile and 5th percentile for the low-temperature events. The analysis results indicate that: 1) significant upward trend of frequency and intensity of the high-temperature events is found in the stations in the west and north part of the Yellow River basin, but trends in most stations in the middle and lower Yellow River basin are not significant at >95% confidence level; 2) almost the whole Yellow River basin is dominated by the significant downward trend of frequency of the cold events. Stations featured by the increasing winter minimum temperature are also more than those featured by changing summer maximum temperature; and 3) annual warming trend in the Yellow River basin mainly results from the increase in winter minimum temperature. Significant warming in the upper reach of the Yellow River will be likely to threaten the availability of the water resource in the whole basin, which should draw certain concerns from local policy-makers and water resource management agency in the region.