Embracing Uncertainty: The Interface of Bayesian Statistics and Cognitive Psychology
Embracing Uncertainty: The Interface of Bayesian Statistics and Cognitive Psychology
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拥抱不确定性：贝叶斯统计与认知心理学的接口
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发表时间：
1998
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通讯作者：
Judith L. Anderson
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作者：
Judith L. Anderson
从事保护和资源管理工作的生态学家正在发现使用贝叶斯分析方法来明确处理数据分析和决策中的不确定性的重要性。然而，作为输入和输出，贝叶斯过程需要一个对人类大脑来说有问题的想法：假设的概率（“单事件概率”）。我描述了几个与单事件概率密切相关的认知概念，并讨论了它们在人类头脑中的互换性是如何导致“认知错觉”的，这是对不确定性推理的明显缺陷。每一种认知错觉都暗示了在生态学和资源管理中使用单事件概率的特定可能陷阱。然后，我讨论了认知心理学的最新研究，这些研究表明，从人类认知的进化角度来看，简单的沟通策略有助于人们在阅读和谈论概率时更有效地处理不确定的信息。此外，我建议仔细考虑的方法标准和表示惯例也可能使贝叶斯分析更容易理解。
Ecologists working in conservation and resource management are discovering the importance of using Bayesian analytic methods to deal explicitly with uncertainty in data analyses and decision making. However, Bayesian procedures require, as inputs and outputs, an idea that is problematic for the human brain: the probability of a hypothesis ("single-event probability"). I describe several cognitive concepts closely related to single-event probabilities, and discuss how their interchangeability in the human mind results in "cognitive illusions," apparent deficits in reasoning about uncertainty. Each cognitive illusion implies specific possible pitfalls for the use of single-event probabilities in ecology and resource management. I then discuss recent research in cognitive psychology showing that simple tactics of communication, suggested by an evolutionary perspective on human cognition, help people to process uncertain information more effectively as they read and talk about probabilities. In addition, I suggest that carefully considered standards for methodology and conventions for presentation may also make Bayesian analyses easier to understand.