Divergent Patterns in the Ethnic Transformation of Societies
Divergent Patterns in the Ethnic Transformation of Societies
复制标题
社会民族转型的不同模式
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Coleman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Coleman
世界不同国家人口结构转型的时间不均衡，将导致各国在种族和宗教同质性方面的差异。较早开始生育率转变的发达国家人口在其居民的族裔血统和宗教方面正变得越来越多样化，这主要是由于最近大量移民的缘故。发达国家的许多人口模式，如低死亡率和低出生率，正在变得普遍。可以预期，随着人口老龄化和经济发展，较不发达国家也将从向外移民转变为向移民。然而，这篇文章表明，未来的种族多样性所产生的移民可能不太明显，在许多发展中国家比在西方，特别是在后来者的生育率转变。五个原因是先进的移民所产生的种族异质性的全球化的障碍：人口，经济，政治，和相关的资源限制因素，和气候变化。本文认为，如果高度的种族多样性和可能的种族替代仍然是当今发达国家的一种特殊性，那么随着21世纪的到来，这些国家将以重要的方式与世界其他国家分道扬镳，那么会产生什么样的社会、经济和政治后果。Copyright（c）2009 The Population理事会，Inc.
The uneven timing of the demographic transition in different countries of the world will lead to divergence between countries in ethnic and religious homogeneity. Developed-country populations that began their fertility transitions relatively early are becoming increasingly diverse with respect to the ethnic origin and religion of their inhabitants, primarily as a result of high recent levels of immigration. Many demographic patterns of the developed world, such as low death and birth rates, are becoming universal. It might be expected that less developed countries will also turn from emigration to experiencing immigration, as their populations age and their economies develop. This essay suggests, however, that future ethnic diversity arising from immigration may be less marked in many of those developing countries than in the West, especially among latecomers to the fertility transition. Five reasons are advanced as impediments to the globalization of ethnic heterogeneity arising from immigration: demographic, economic, political, and factors related to resource constraints, and climate change. The essay considers what social, economic, and political consequences might arise if high levels of ethnic diversity, and possibly ethnic replacement, remained an idiosyncratic peculiarity of today's developed countries, which would therefore diverge in important ways from the rest of the world as the twenty-first century unfolds. Copyright (c) 2009 The Population Council, Inc..