Evaluating the accuracy of MSWEP V2.1 and its performance for drought monitoring over mainland China
Evaluating the accuracy of MSWEP V2.1 and its performance for drought monitoring over mainland China
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评估MSWEP V2.1的准确性及其对中国大陆干旱监测的性能
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.008
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发表时间：
2019-09
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Guo Xiao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xu Zhengguang;Wu Zhiyong;He Hai;Wu Xiaotao;Zhou Jianhong;Zhang Yuliang;Guo Xiao
长期、可靠的降水定量估算产品为大规模干旱监测和其他相关水文气象应用提供了理想的数据来源。本研究的主要目的是评估多源加权集合降水2.1版本（MSWEP V2.1）在中国大陆干旱监测中的适用性。首先利用586个气象站的实测降水资料对MSWEP V2.1的精度进行了评价。基于MSWEP V2.1的标准化降水指数（SPI）在多个空间（区域和栅格）和时间（1、3、6和12 月）尺度上进行验证和分析。最后，以3个典型干旱事件为例，分析了MSWEP V2.1在捕获干旱条件时空变化方面的潜力。结果表明，尽管MSWEP V2.1总体上低估了中国大陆大部分地区的降水量，但MSWEP V2.1与雨量计观测值的一致性较好。MSWEP V2.1与现场观测的相关系数（CC）在月尺度上最高，其次是年尺度和日尺度，平均CC分别为0.93、0.86和0.77。基于MSWEP v2.1的SPI与多个时空尺度气象站降水数据的SPI匹配较好。总体而言，MSWEP V2.1在中国东部的性能显著优于在中国西部的性能。尽管如此，MSWEP V2.1对中国西部干旱监测的潜力仍然大于两个基于卫星的降水估计，即热带降雨测量任务（TRMM）多卫星降水分析（TMPA） 3B42V7和气候预测中心变形技术（CMORPH）卫星-测量合并产品（CMORPH BLD）。通过对3个典型干旱事件的分析发现，基于MSWEP v2.1的SPI不仅能够准确地描述干旱事件的发生和发展，而且能够合理地反映典型干旱事件的重要特征，如强度和面积范围。总体而言，MSWEP V2.1可作为中国大陆特别是华东地区干旱监测的替代数据源。然而，MSWEP V2.1在中国西部干旱半干旱区的表现仍有待改进。
Long-term, reliable quantitative precipitation estimate products provide an ideal data source for large-scale drought monitoring and other related hydrological and meteorological applications. The foremost purpose of this study was to evaluate the suitability of Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation Version 2.1 (MSWEP V2.1) for drought monitoring over mainland China. The accuracy of MSWEP V2.1 was first evaluated against observed precipitation data derived from 586 meteorological stations. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on MSWEP V2.1 was then validated and analyzed at multiple spatial (regional and grid) and temporal (1, 3, 6, and 12 months) scales. Finally, we considered three typical drought events as case studies and analyzed the potential of MSWEP V2.1 in capturing the temporal and spatial variations of drought conditions. The results indicated that there was good agreement between MSWEP V2.1 and the rain gauge observations, even though MSWEP V2.1 generally underestimated the precipitation over most parts of mainland China. MSWEP V2.1 exhibited the highest correlation coefficient (CC) with in situ observations at monthly timescales, followed by those at yearly timescales and daily timescales with an average CC of 0.93, 0.86, and 0.77, respectively. The MSWEP V2.1-based SPI matched well with that calculated from the precipitation data derived from the meteorological stations at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Generally, the performance of MSWEP V2.1 over eastern China was significantly superior to its performance in western China. Despite this, MSWEP V2.1 still provided a greater potential for drought monitoring over western China than two satellite-based precipitation estimates, namely the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42V7 and the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) satellite-gauge merged product (CMORPH BLD). Through the analysis of three typical drought events, we found that the MSWEP V2.1-based SPI could not only precisely describe the occurrence and development of drought events, but also reasonably reflect important characteristics of typical drought events, such as intensity and areal extent. In general, MSWEP V2.1 could be used as an alternative data source for drought monitoring over mainland China, particularly in eastern China. However, the performance of MSWEP V2.1 in the arid and semi-arid areas of western China still requires improvement.
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DOI：
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