Consideration of anthropogenic factors in boreal forest fire regime changes during rapid socio-economic development: case study of forestry districts with increasing burnt area in the Sakha Republic, Russia
Consideration of anthropogenic factors in boreal forest fire regime changes during rapid socio-economic development: case study of forestry districts with increasing burnt area in the Sakha Republic, Russia
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab6c6e
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Yan, Wanglin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kirillina, Kiunnei;Shvetsov, Evgeny G.;Yan, Wanglin
本文提出了一种新颖的方法来刻画有限火灾数据区域的历史火势。火灾变量来自卫星数据集和区域火灾发生统计数据。他们定义了火灾制度的组成部分，如历史趋势、时空演变、火灾季节性和原因。基于Rodionov提出的火情变化检测方法研究了火情的时间演变，同时使用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Sen的斜率估计器分析了火情变化的统计意义。进行了描述性分析，以评估火灾的季节性、原因，并共同构成了本方法的基础。我们通过评估萨哈共和国(雅库特)的历史火灾活动来验证所提出的方法，萨哈共和国是俄罗斯最容易发生火灾的地区之一。这项评估使用了1996-2018年期间的数据。我们检测到历史上火灾活动的增加以及火灾制度变化的门槛。分析期间的变化包括火季延长，火烧面积扩大，火险高峰期延长。总体而言，在受气候变暖和人为变化加剧影响较大的地区，发现了火情的显著变化。
This paper presents an original approach to characterizing historical fire regimes for regions with limited fire data. Fire variables were derived from satellite datasets and regional fire occurrence statistics. They defined the integral elements of a fire regime such as historical trends, spatiotemporal evolution, fire seasonality and causes. Temporal evolution was investigated based on a regime shift detection method developed by Rodionov while changes in the fire regime were analyzed for statistical significance using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. A descriptive analysis was performed to assess fire seasonality, causes, and together formed the basis for this methodology. We validated the proposed approach by assessing historical fire activity in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), which is one of the most fire-prone regions of Russia. The assessment was conducted with data from the period of 1996-2018. We detected increases in historical fire activity as well as thresholds of change in the fire regime. Changes during the analysis period included lengthening of fire season, increased burned area extent, and extension of peak fire period. Overall, significant changes in the fire regime were detected in the regions strongly affected by warming and increasing anthropogenic alteration.