Age-period-cohort modelling of alcohol volume and heavy drinking days in the US National Alcohol Surveys: divergence in younger and older adult trends
Age-period-cohort modelling of alcohol volume and heavy drinking days in the US National Alcohol Surveys: divergence in younger and older adult trends
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1360-0443.2008.02391.x
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发表时间：
2009-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Rehm, Juergen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kerr, William C.;Greenfield, Thomas K.;Rehm, Juergen
将饮酒量和大量饮酒天数的趋势分解为年龄、时期、队列和人口统计学影响，为了解美国饮酒模式变化的动态提供了重要的视角。这项研究使用了1979至2005年间进行的六项全国酒精调查的数据。饮酒量和饮酒五次或五次以上和八次或八次以上的天数是从总体和饮料特定的分级频率问题得出的。趋势分析表明，尽管26岁及以上人群的饮酒措施平均值持续下降，在18-25岁的人群中，饮酒量和5天以上的饮酒量都有大幅增长。年龄-时期-队列模型表明，1975年后出生的人中存在潜在的积极队列效应。然而，不能排除对年龄-队列互动的另一种解释，即饮酒在20多岁后期的下降幅度比最古老的调查中的情况更大。仅就女性而言，1956年至1960年出生的人似乎比刚刚出生在之前或之后的人饮酒更多。模型还表明了收入、种族、教育程度和婚姻状况在决定这些酒精指标中的重要性。在最近的调查中，年轻人酗酒现象的增加对酒精政策构成了重大挑战，并可能表明美国未来的酒精消费将持续增加。
The decomposition of trends in alcohol volume and heavy drinking days into age, period, cohort and demographic effects offers an important perspective on the dynamics of change in alcohol use patterns in the United States.The present study utilizes data from six National Alcohol Surveys conducted over the 26-year period between 1979 and 2005.United States.Alcohol volume and the number of days when five or more and eight or more drinks were consumed were derived from overall and beverage-specific graduated frequency questions.Trend analyses show that while mean values of drinking measures have continued to decline for those aged 26 and older, there has been a substantial increase in both alcohol volume and 5+ days among those aged 18-25 years. Age-period-cohort models indicate a potential positive cohort effect among those born after 1975. However, an alternative interpretation of an age-cohort interaction where drinking falls off more steeply in the late 20s than was the case in the oldest surveys cannot be ruled out. For women only, the 1956-60 birth cohort appears to drink more heavily than those born just before or after. Models also indicate the importance of income, ethnicity, education and marital status in determining these alcohol measures.Increased heavy drinking among young adults in recent surveys presents a significant challenge for alcohol policy and may indicate a sustained increase in future US alcohol consumption.