The End of Cheap Chinese Labor
The End of Cheap Chinese Labor
复制标题
中国廉价劳动力的终结
DOI：
10.1257/jep.26.4.57
复制
发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Xiong, Yanyan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Hongbin;Li, Lei;Xiong, Yanyan
近几十年来，廉价劳动力在中国模式中发挥了核心作用，中国模式依赖于扩大对世界贸易的参与，将其作为经济增长的主要驱动力。1978年中国经济改革之初，中国城镇工人的年薪按美元计算只有1004美元。当时中国人的工资只有美国平均工资的3%，也明显低于菲律宾和泰国等亚洲邻国的工资。与生产率相比，中国人的工资也很低。然而，中国的工资现在正在上涨。2010年，以美元计算，中国城市工人的年薪达到5487美元，与菲律宾和泰国工人的工资相当，明显高于印度和印度尼西亚工人的工资。自20世纪90年代末以来，中国的工资增长速度也快于生产率的增长，这表明从这个意义上讲，中国劳动力的成本也在上升。中国的工资增长并不局限于任何行业，无论是熟练工人还是非熟练工人，无论是沿海地区还是内陆地区，出口企业和非出口企业的工资都有所增加。我们使用国家和行业层面的数据作为工资增长与生产率增长的基准，显示中国劳动力在20世纪90年代末之前一直保持廉价，但自那以来相对劳动力成本有所上升。最后，我们讨论了推动工资上涨的主要力量。
In recent decades, cheap labor has played a central role in the Chinese model, which has relied on expanded participation in world trade as a main driver of growth. At the beginning of China's economic reforms in 1978, the annual wage of a Chinese urban worker was only $1,004 in U.S. dollars. The Chinese wage was only 3 percent of the average U.S. wage at that time, and it was also significantly lower than the wages in neighboring Asian countries such as the Philippines and Thailand. The Chinese wage was also low relative to productivity. However, wages are now rising in China. In 2010, the annual wage of a Chinese urban worker reached $5,487 in U.S. dollars, which is similar to wages earned by workers in the Philippines and Thailand and significantly higher than those earned by workers in India and Indonesia. China's wages also increased faster than productivity since the late 1990s, suggesting that Chinese labor is becoming more expensive in this sense as well. The increase in China's wages is not confined to any sector, as wages have increased for both skilled and unskilled workers, for both coastal and inland areas, and for both exporting and nonexporting firms. We benchmark wage growth to productivity growth using both national- and industry-level data, showing that Chinese labor was kept cheap until the late 1990s but the relative cost of labor has increased since then. Finally, we discuss the main forces that are pushing wages up.